Probable Misclassification of Vaccine Deaths as COVID-19 Deaths

The Chloroquine Wars Part XLIV

Recently, I've seen various media reports such as this one from Bloomberg stating that 99.2% of recent U.S. deaths were among unvaccinated individuals.

(AP) -- Nearly all COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. now are in people who weren’t vaccinated, a staggering demonstration of how effective the shots have been and an indication that deaths per day — now down to under 300 — could be practically zero if everyone eligible got the vaccine.

An Associated Press analysis of available government data from May shows that “breakthrough” infections in fully vaccinated people accounted for fewer than 1,200 of more than 107,000 COVID-19 hospitalizations. That’s about 1.1%.

And only about 150 of the more than 18,000 COVID-19 deaths in May were in fully vaccinated people. That translates to about 0.8%, or five deaths per day on average.

This tale strikes me as fantastical given that those most at risk presumably front-loaded U.S. vaccination data. How could U.S. results possibly differ so dramatically from those in the UK (here, here, and here) where most COVID-19 deaths are occurring among the vaccinated population despite a similar vaccination rate (using an almost identical set of vaccines) even more targeted toward high risk individuals? If the vaccines were quite so fantastically effective, and the U.S. even somewhat front-loaded those of high risk, we would expect deaths to have fallen off the map precipitously, not gradually as took place.

Steve Kirsch prodded me to take a read through this recent analysis (McLachlan et al) of COVID-19 Vaccine Adverse Events Reporting System (VAERS) reported deaths, 250 out of the first 1,644 deaths reported post-vaccination in VAERS were sampled for examination. Some interesting observations among these reports:

  • In 14% of cases, vaccination could be definitely ruled out as the cause of death.

  • Reports of death ramp heavily with age, similarly though not quite as much as with COVID-19. However, I have not normalized that curve according to the age profiles of those vaccinated up to the reporting time.

  • Half of the reported deaths occurred during the first 48 hours, and 80% during the first week. Such temporal skew is heavy circumstantial evidence of causality for a substantial portion of cases.

  • As with COVID-19, there are heavily correlated comorbidities which themselves are similar to comorbidities of those who died from COVID-19.

  • Far more deaths occurred (91% of the total) after the first dose than the second. While it might be true that some patients had not yet received a second dose, the proportionality is enormous. This is suggestive of causality as those who might die from a second dose would have been already heavily culled due to the first dose.

But here is the most interesting part:

In spite of the fact that only 11 (4%) present with a test-confirmed and current COVID-19 infection, all 250 people in this interim collection were reported as COVID-19 deaths. This means that all, even those who received one or more negative test results, are erroneously counted in the officially reported national COVID-19 death tally. 

I have at times been skeptical of a great many pandemic statistics. I have a long list of my own unconfirmed skeptical takes (and a handful of confirmed ones). But this is an absolute smoking gun (credit to Steve Kirsch). And if a large portion of the 9,000 deaths in the VAERS database (likely underreported by a several fold factor) have been incorrectly tallied as COVID-19 deaths, who knows how many other deaths have been so incorrectly tallied? The answer is likely in the tens of thousands, if not more.

It certainly looks like data smuggling is going on, but perhaps there is another (please email it to me) explanation? That is hard to imagine in the face of the enormous disparity between the mortality efficacy of the vaccines implied by the U.S. data (close to 100%) and what is implied by the UK data. And we don't even know the extent to which vaccine deaths might be counted as COVID-19 deaths in the UK---particularly when the immediate cause (stroke, heart attack, etc.) overlap so heavily. More and more evidence points to the Type II COVID theory.

Another story of interest in the tale of tracking COVID-19 and vaccine deaths: Yale's School of Public Health claims that vaccines have saved 279,000 Americans. That is roughly as many COVID-19 deaths as have occurred in the U.S. since the vaccination program began, though around the peak of the Winter wave, only a small portion of Americans were vaccinated. Even now, barely over half of Americans are vaccinated. If on average, per exposure, 25% of Americans were vaccinated at the point of exposure and vaccines were 100% effective, we would expect vaccines to have saved a third as many lives as COVID-19 took. This means that a computation of 279,000 lives saved implies 837,000 COVID-19 deaths since the outset of the vaccine campaign, not the 320,000 that have occurred since the vaccination program began.

The only way to get close to justifying the numbers is to assume that a great many vaccine-related deaths have been incorrectly classified as COVID-19 deaths, that deaths in breakthrough cases are underreported due to changes in the testing regime, or both.

So, are our government medical institutions organizing the fudging of numbers to artificially create the appearance of vaccine efficacy (and net benefits)? That we allow federal institutions to share in ownership of patents and profits is a moral hazard we never should have ignored. And the potential for harm from such conflicts of interest look more suspicious by the day.

Not to promote the further abuse of statistics, but I suppose then that it's my responsibility to mention that 100% of you reading this article are still alive. So, if you want to save lives, forward this article to some friends. They might even achieve immortality as continued readers.