35 Comments

Very interesting. Funny you should alight on the one aspect that a non-mathematician (me) felt looked “wrong”: the period of the second wave. For reasons I can’t explain, when I heard about a second peal, I had expected it to have a longer period than the first.

But thinking further, now with a toxicologists hat on, what would I expect to see if there were two distinct mechanisms of toxicity that caused death? I believe there are at least two. The first is likely to be due to events that occur swiftly if they’re going to occur in any given individual, such as thromboembolic events. The second is unlikely to kill swiftly, if part because, by its nature, the effects accumulate over time, such as reduced immune defence capability.

What shaped function wuth time might it be most reasonable to expect to see?

I expected it to have a longer period, though I cannot justify why.

Expand full comment
author
Mar 24, 2022·edited Mar 24, 2022Author

Here is what I would expect (maybe I'll edit the article, but this was an extremely quick write-up as my primary focuses are elsewhere): two functions.

f(x) = standard seasonable wave

g(x) = New wave with a decaying exponential that may hump up (in a way that could even be hard to distinguish from a simple, mild trend) anywhere from a few months to a few decades from now (though I doubt it will take nearly that long).

g itself probably has a perturbation wave itself, associated with the stress of the extreme seasons, but that's likely fairly mild.

Overall, (f+g)(x) will closely resemble the new function, though what f really does is borrow from the longer term to add to the near-term.

The timing of the outset of the vaccination campaigns makes f+g look like a more ordinary sine-esque wave, unfortunately, but with a larger first hump/spike. I'm certain this was quite intentional and designed to allow for the claim that the first hump is COVID deaths.

How to distinguish? I think this is where my first mortality analysis (the sudden leap in CFR across all of Europe at the outset of the vaccination campaign) plays the right role. That's where we can see the association of vaccination and taller first wave.

Expand full comment

Thanks, that’s helpful. One pretty obvious thing I should have examined but have not, is the clinical features. It would undermine the two hump interpretation if the patterns in causes of death were the same for both humps.

Expand full comment

Mathew - I've been checking this data with curiosity:

https://www.usmortality.com/

When I last checked 1-2 days ago, the line was solid up to end of December 2021. Today, it looks like data for another week or so into January 2022 was added.

The curve appears to be remarkably vertical. The prediction is that the curve will surely revert to mean. Surely it must? Right?

Expand full comment
Mar 24, 2022·edited Mar 27, 2022Liked by Mathew Crawford

Dear Dr Mike Yeadon,and your supportive wife,Thank You for continuing the fight. I am not a toxicologist or a statistician, but I think that it will be impossible to correlate any 2 nd curves in deaths to the vax,especially in over 70’s.Lifestyle/ genetics will drag out the resultant deaths.I am sure my life will be shortened by the toxic effects of my Pfizer booster Vax,I accept what can’t be changed.

Prof Dr Arne Burkhardt has developed a stain that shows up the spike protein in pathology samples.Do you know of any UK pathologists that are doing similar work? I want to donate my brain for research, and pay for my autopsie from my will. I think there will be many others who would feel the same.My hope is that one day the body of evidence will be so large it will stop this ever happening again.Thank You Helen Seymour

I have found a description of the technique used by Arne Burkhardt to determine spike protein from the vax relative to Covid Spike.

https://pathologie-konferenz.de/en/

I have also tried 3 UK Pathology organisations,I haven’t found a UK pathologist working on this problem so far, but I will post on this link an update for interested parties.Best Wishes Helen

Expand full comment

Helen,

Thank you for your kind words as well as your comments. While I’m not personally connected to the U.K. pathology field, that’s a very good reminder about Burkhardt’s technique. I’ll ask Clare Craig.

If the technique is what I think it is, it’s “immunostaining” tissue sections prepared during the surgical phase of the post mortem.

The minimal requirement is an antibody which selectively & sensitively recognises SARS-CoV-2 spike protein. This could be raised in a Turkey, sheep, goat, so we’d end up with a “sheep antii-spike antibody”. This would have to be raised, through expression & purification of the spike protein, which probably has been done somewhere). That sheep would be bled and serum will contain the required antibodies, which could be characterised in vitro.

The tissue section, mounted on a microscope slide, gets a couple of drops of the first antibody. After a little time (probably a few minutes, determined by a few trials), the section is washed & a second antibody, raised in a different species, would be added (which could be described as “donkey anti-sheep” & this will be commercially available). It’s entirely possible that this antibody will have additionally been modified so that it carries an enzyme capable of converting a colourless solution to a coloured, insoluble product (such as horseradish peroxidase - HRPx).

In the final step, a few drops containing the colourless substrate is added to the slide. Once developed, the slide is rinsed again & the section examined under light microscopy, probably using an oil-immersion lens. If the section reveals dark dots all over the place in some tissues & not others, that’ll reveal where spike was being expressed.

Expand full comment
Mar 24, 2022·edited Mar 24, 2022

Thrombi accrete over time. My vascular surgeon buddy performed several carotid thrombectomies in the past couple of days, which is quite unusual. All in older, vaccinated patients. (There is high coincidence of age and vaccination status.) Carotid thrombi aren't unusual in older patients, but the incidence has increased several fold.

If thrombi are accreting due to some autoimmune disorder, then temporal patterns may emerge related to vaccination dates (first, second, and boosters).

Correction: My vascular surgeon buddy actually performed carotid endarterectomies, which are prophylactic to prevent carotid strokes from carotid stenosis. The increased occurrence of carotid stenosis may somehow be due to autoimmune disorders linked to some covid vaccines.

Symptoms of carotid stenosis include dizziness and fainting. If I suspected vaccine damage, I'd be taking antihistamines regularly. Otherwise, low dose (81 mg) aspirin.

Expand full comment

I seem to wonder also if the statistical likelihood of an IV injection would cause the early sudden effects spike as well. I'm not sure on exact figures but I think it was a 1 in 10k of IV injection, and if IV, your likelihood of a bad outcome early is large.

Expand full comment

Yes an IV injection would surely lead to a bad outcome, due to my research I asked for mine to be aspirated😊 at least I know my problems are not due to that.I also had decided not to have the booster,but as a Zoe app Covid 19 member I unfortunately listened to the advice that there were no reported injuries on the day of my appointment….

Expand full comment

I'm confused - you knew about the dangers of the "vaccine" and still got 3 doses of it? Or you learned of the danger afterwards?

Expand full comment

I learned afterwards 😳In UK our. NHS is trusted,I had just started to find info on some vax damage.

I trusted the Zoe App,Approx 6 million UK Citizens freely give health info daily to help the statisticians, The day of my booster I had decided not to go but,Dr Tim ( Zoe App) reported that morning that there were no adverse effects from the booster, so I trusted that info and went along.

if I had been in the under 70 group, more time! Don’t forget even Robert Malone was originally following the Noble lie theory.Within a couple of weeks, when feeling really ill I joined Telegram and found out all the news that was blocked by MSM.

Expand full comment
Mar 24, 2022Liked by Mathew Crawford

I really appreciate your work Mathew. I think there are too many variables in the equation. Batches are different, multiple manufacturers are involved, etc. Add to that variations in the health of the vaxxed population pre-injection, and the thing that actually killed them being often unknown due to an extreme lack of interest from the people who are providing “care”. Maybe the second hump is clotting. Without the real cause of death, it is difficult to say that there is a connection. Probably precisely what they had in mind.

The bottom line is that we are all looking at the same problem, and from every angle it is a catastrophe. Our government and our “healthcare” are reducing our populations, all over the world. They will not stop, and they will never acknowledge that what they are actually doing is intentional. They are not too blind to see this, or too stupid to understand. At any other time in the recorded history of “vaccines” the program would not have lasted one month, and everyone involved would be running for cover. Today, the people who planned and carried out this crime are still at large and in charge.

Expand full comment
author

It's possible that mortality has some sort of magnet 200-350 days out, but the first explanation is seasonality, which we absolutely know is a substantial variable.

I'm still highly skeptical of the batch lot sabotage theory. The stats we've seen are not enough to make any supposition:

https://roundingtheearth.substack.com/p/understanding-batch-lot-toxicity

Expand full comment

Mathew, I too no longer require deliberate sabotage for the variability to exist. This is because we’ve now closely examined the leaked correspondence between sponsor & regulator. Just a few weeks prior to gaining EUA, the Pfizer product was assessed as in such a total mess as to have attracted from the technical reviewers several MOs (Major Objections) to authorisation. It’s not surprising because complex biological products take years to work it how to manufacture it on scale, and they’d had a few months.

I’ve no doubt that what is in each batch or lot is not consistent.

The immediate corollary is that the recipient cannot rely on the clinical safety / efficacy data in the EUA filing as any kind of guide to what would happen to the poor people given the commercial product.

The sponsor knew this, as did the regulator. The latter simply set the acceptable specifications to what the sponsor had. I’ve never seen anything like it. For example, they set as acceptable that just 50% of the mRNA had to be full-length. No characterisation was required for the balance.

Expand full comment

When the data is largely produced or suppressed by the perpetrators the only way to know for sure is to install your own data collection system. The second hump could be just inadequate healthcare in general, as our hospitals have become exponentially more deadly in general due to their singular focus on the cash they are pulling in from the bio weapon and injectable bio weapon. All of those patients come first, while others code out in the hallway waiting for a room.

Expand full comment
author

Why would worse healthcare result in a hump that mimics seasonability?

There's just no need to look for an explanation like that, and I think that projecting them harms the credibility of our side. The exploration that led to the graph was reasonable, but the obvious first order explanation is just that seasonality is always a large mortality variable.

Expand full comment

Probably, but their credibility certainly has taken a huge hit, and I think that is something we need to face. Just man in the street talking here. I am not going unless I can’t stop the bleeding or the bones are sticking out. I am afraid of them, and I am not alone, but perhaps that has the opposite effect on mortality! Keep up the good work. No problem is unsolvable, it just takes time and truth.

Expand full comment

And giving it some more thought, here is my answer to your question:

Let’s say everyone in the waiting room has a cold or the flu, because it is the Season, and they are afraid they are going to die from COVID. Man comes in with a ruptured spleen from a fall, he is not in bad shape just yet, but he has 35 COVID potential patients in front of him. and they are in FRONT of him in every way. He gets no attention, and he dies, in the waiting room. This has nothing to do with the bio weapon or the vaxx, just an example of what is happening in real life. Perhaps some other folks working in healthcare can chime in here. Like a triage nurse maybe?

Expand full comment

Mathew, I can't follow your math, but I can always count on you to acknowledge confounding variables, and be discerning with what you're sure of. You rock.

Expand full comment

I am commenter 100. Do I get the prize?

Expand full comment
author

You ARE the prize!

Expand full comment

The stakes are high. If they get away with the "safe and effective" narrative full stop, they are going to make an mRNA gene therapy for every illness under the sun, and mandate all of them to participate in society. Kids will have to take 500-1000 shots to get through public school. We will all be subject to bi-monthly multi-boosters. Declining life expectancy will be blamed on the unvaccinated.

Expand full comment

Why is this second hump not just easily explained by vaccine mandates? Vaccine mandates by private companies started popping up in July 2021, which easily explains more people getting the vaccine because they felt forced, and thus explains the second hump. Basically the first hump is manslaughter, the second one is murder.

Expand full comment

Thanks for the article.

I think adding two sine waves that are in phase with the same frequency but different amplitudes would simply be represented as:

Asin(wt)+Bsin(wt)

= (A+B)sin(wt).

But perhaps there is a phase shift implied in the example in the article. When adding two sine waves that are out of phase, where p is the phase difference, and with same frequency but different amplitudes, I think one can employ phasor addition (vector addition in complex plane).

If I'm doing it right, that might be the following, where w=2*pi*f, and using cosine for convenience:

Ae^jwt+Be^j(wt+p)

= Ae^jwt+B(e^jwt)e^jp

= (A+Be^jp)(e^jwt)

Going further,

= (A + Bcos(p) + jBsin(p))(cos(wt)+jsin(wt))

= [(A + Bcos(p))cos(wt) - Bsin(p)sin(wt)] + j[(A+Bcos(p)sin(wt) + Bsin(p)cos(wt)]

Taking the real part should yield something like:

(A+Bcos(p))cos(wt) - Bsin(p)sin(wt)

which may not be the simplest form.

I really should have been sleeping. Thanks again for the article.

Expand full comment
author
Mar 24, 2022·edited Mar 25, 2022Author

I caught that after I published and wrote an edit. I had closed the LaTeX window without saving the code, and I don't want to type it all up again, lol.

But thank you for looking out for me.

I too prefer to use complex numbers for such calculations. I always like it when I get to teaching roots of unity in that course, but it's not clear to me what the best audience-target is to make the point for this article.

Cheers.

Expand full comment

Quite a can of worms we've got. Even the "first" event shown was a "second " event for someone studying a previous spike. If they had no knowledge of an injection immediately prior to (what to them is) the subsequent event, that second "hump" would be mystifying to them.

Then there's the inherent problem with VAERS reports, in general. Does the rapid fall off in days subsequent to the injection date indicate decreasing danger from the jab, or does it reflect the very human inclination to blame a recent initiating cause and not connect the two?

Treacherous waters, here. On many fronts.

Expand full comment
Mar 24, 2022·edited Mar 24, 2022

There's a paper out about post-vaccination cerebral venous thrombosis showing an incidence of 4 cases per million in the general population. As usual the authors compare risk from CVT for vaccination v. covid, which is a common fallacy. The risk from vaccination is additive, not relative to the unvaccinated covid case.

"Cerebral venous thrombosis: a retrospective cohort study of 513,284 confirmed COVID-19 cases and a comparison with 489,871 people receiving a COVID-19 mRNA vaccine"

http://www.sclma.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/covid-cvt-paper.pdf

Expand full comment

What exactly is the effect of booster/third dose on the figures? I searched for, but couldn't find, "boost" and "third" on the howbad page. Here in Germany, highest excess mortality occurs with the booster campaign. Also, boosters have been administered roughly half a year after the second dose.

Expand full comment

Would it be possible to find s subset of the cases with a more uniform distribution of calendar day? Unfortunately they narrower the rollout the harder this is.

Another analysis could look at the cases making up the second hump to see what part of the year the occur.

It does seem like there is long term damage eg clots building up, damage to vascular system, but it also does make sense that the final straw could be triggered by seasonal effects.

Expand full comment
author

I just don't think it's necessary. The second chart that shows people dying soon after the jab, and so many other pieces of evidence, are enough. We know these vaccines are harming people without the need to pull a rabbit out of the data.

Expand full comment

That's a fair point. Somehow though I worry about the possibility that vaccine injury is recast as covid injury, that bolsters the argument for more vaccines. So I feel we should never give any ground on this topic.

Expand full comment

The second peak is most likely the effect of booster campaign... not so much deaths caused by shots given 6-8 months earlier.

Expand full comment

from the Albuquerque Journal today, no knowing vax status, but possibly another tragedy:

Former Bosque School hoops star Davidson dies

BY JAMES YODICE / JOURNAL STAFF WRITER

THURSDAY, MARCH 24TH, 2022 AT 8:56PM

Bosque coach Clifton Davidson, right, walks out of the Pit with his son Elijah Davidson after defeating Sandia Prep and winning the boys 3A state basketball title on March 14, 2020. Elijah Davidson has died, his father said Thursday on social media. (Roberto E. Rosales/Albuquerque Journal)

Elijah Davidson, who led the Bosque School boys basketball program to a Class 3A state championship in 2020 and was a player at NCAA Division II Western Colorado University, has died.

Davidson died on Wednesday. The Journal on Thursday did not have details on how.

His father, Clifton, who was Elijah’s coach at Bosque School, posted a message on Facebook on Wednesday and said he wrote it with a “broken heart.”

advertisement

“Our beloved and precious son, Elijah Davidson, passed away early today. … (We) are grieving and struggling through this terrible day.”

The 6-foot-4 Davidson’s hometown is Rio Rancho.

“We know that he was loved by many of you and you will be impacted by this news,” a Davidson family statement read. “Our hearts are with you as we know yours are with us.”

Born in Baton Rouge, Louisiana, Davidson was a first-team, all-state player in his final two seasons with the Bobcats, and averaged 26 points a game as Bosque School defeated Sandia Prep in the championship game two years ago.

Expand full comment

Great points, thank you!

Expand full comment

Hey Mathew, what happened to your post, "The Meta Analytical Fixers"?

Expand full comment