Just woke up so still groggy, but aren't they still counted as unvaxxed until 2 weeks after their (latest) jab?

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May 9, 2022Liked by Mathew Crawford

Of course there are shenanigans going on. Heck, they've never even proven that "regular" (pre-Covid) vaccines are effective in the long term. The whole thing is a giant myth birthed by the Great White Polio Panic of the 1940s and 50s (when they used to literally think black people were immune) combined with the WHO finally getting a win in the 70s with their smallpox program. When the WHO was founded, the two big issues were cholera and malaria, neither of which has ever shown any improvement whatsoever.

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It's frustrating to know that Fauci and Kaiser and the CDC and the DoD have all the numbers you need, but they just don't want to share, and they won't share until the numbers don't matter anymore, and there is no group within the House of Representatives, or the Graveyard that is the Senate, that is working to make them share the numbers now. Ron Johnson is working alone, and appears to be a 'safety valve' to control pressure.

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"shenanigans based on bucketing.." Yup there is a huge amount of mis-categorized AE's in VAERS! https://i.imgur.com/Kq9stpp.jpg and the throttling and the deleting. https://i.imgur.com/d3s996J.jpg

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May 9, 2022·edited May 9, 2022Liked by Mathew Crawford

So, a same-day death theory would just be a narrower version of Fenton’s time lag theory as far as I understand the latter.

Both have a flaw, at least in the younger groups where Pfizer is used, in that same-day Dose 2 deaths should then dump into the Dose 1 <21 days column. And AEs seem to be higher on Dose 2 though there’s not good fidelity with then AE data. Either way it should auto-correct the Dose 1 <21 days group starting older than the current reversal.

You already saw my comment RE not-deathbed bias on Kirsch’s post. I still think that is sufficient to explain everything, right down to why the bias drops when age does. I have offered an explanation of the immortality effect and the dying straggler effect using an analogy with a room full of citizens going up to get Panera buzzers https://unglossed.substack.com/p/the-panera-kingdom-problem

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Thank you Mathew. The DPDH hypothesis certainly may be a contributor. There must be something else going on, right? Only 16% of vaccine deaths occur within 24 hours (VAERS). The others will end up in one of the vaxxxxed buckets (mitigating the immortality effect) or be misclassified as a C19 death (driving down VE).

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Did you attempt to calculate the potential size of the effect of this partial day mis-classification? Would it have such a big effect? Intuitively it feels like it would not have such a large impact, unless the vaccine is really killing a crapload of people within 12 hours of taking it.

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May 10, 2022Liked by Mathew Crawford

Thanks for the analysis. While I find the same day hypothesis interesting, for me a huge point here is the consistency of the 13% number year over year. IMO this is a deal breaker for VE considering UK had both very high uptake and high spread in 2020.

It reminds me of Gatos comparisons of Israel and Palestine, showing very similar outcomes over the past winter despite huge differences in vax rate. Now, we see the same effect happening in a region compared to it's 2020 self. I know many other such analyses have shown this too, but I find this one particularly compelling because of the consistency.

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May 9, 2022·edited Jun 22, 2022

I live in the UK, I had 2x Astra Zennica,+ Pfizer booster,(Comirnaty,for all you US citizens who think that version is OK) VERY BAD effects,it took over half an hour to even list on the Yellow Card register.Your VAERS…There are endless boxes where you have to think of a word that describes your symptoms ( example: my description, prismatic effect on edges of vision of vision field) nothing! Etc etc eventually visual disturbances produced a drop down list….Anyone without a good command of medical language would have problems producing the numerous drop down boxes, if you can’t find anything you CANT MOVE ON with the filing 🤬🤯

I am lucky I am still here 6 months later 🤞🏻

Then regarding ONS Data, without a doubt the rules governing the filing of info is biased in every way to make the vaxed deaths look like unvaxed ,that is the same in almost every country….If I had died in the 2 weeks after the vax I would have been unvaxed..HEY PRESTO another STUPID UNVAXED PERSON BITES THE DUST.


for showing us even more fixing of the figures ,and in such a numerous ways, but all of us readers are here becomes we know that…

In UK practically one third are not vaxed with these EUA products,the other 2/3 rds.had NO IDEA we were being lied to, we trusted our UK Gov ,our NHS.I was one of those and I am having extreme difficulty showing the others what is going on.


THANK YOU AGAIN for giving me some more ammunition to fight this battle.🤗 😊

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Absolutely, and the "immortal time bias" (https://jasn.asnjournals.org/content/19/5/841.short) was pointed out (not by this name) by boriquagato in his "bayesian datacrimes" article (https://boriquagato.substack.com/p/bayesian-datacrime-defining-vaccine) and more memorably in "foxhole deaths" (https://boriquagato.substack.com/p/why-vaccinated-covid-deathshospitalizations).

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Fraudulent RCTs and fraudulent data reporting from all agencies. I also suspect a mass psychosis of confirmation bias in all studies around VE.

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Fascinating analysis. I like this hypothesis. I'm not sure you need a data sieve at the statistical level - just normal anchoring bias. After having been ascribed to COVID there would be no reason for the attending physician to consider assigning the death to the vax and it would go unreported as such. Here in the UK, much free PCR testing occurred, at drop-in stations and at places of work. Those who felt the need to attend a voluntary test and those whose employer made them do it would have been more likely to take up the offer of a shot.

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Phew Mama, you are pretty amazing. I’d say the likelihood of shenanigans is pretty effing high.

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Mathew, do you think they are seeing more deaths than they predicted, or less, given that some damn body really must have known what the heck this was going to do to the particular populations and there certainly had to be "a plan" from the very start.

I mean, this damn thing seems to have been in the works for a long time.

I don not believe we got here because of a "stumbling colossus."

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that's a bingo! here is what's going on in the db code. each person has a datetime field for vaccine date and death date. In order to find the difference in time between these fields, you use a datediff operator in SQL

DATEDIFF ( datepart , vaccinedate , deathdate )

The datepart can be set to days, hours, minutes etc

Since everything in ONS is defined by "days" the programmer spec requirements would have used days. And days is defined as 24 hours between dates.

So if you get vaccinated and die less than 24 hours then no matter what you are in the unvaccinated bucket.

And here's the kicker.

What happens when they find your body dead the next day after vaccination?

Do they give you a time of death?

If they don't then guess what happens in the db when you don't input a time?

The time will automatically default to

midnight 00:00:00 for that date.

I'm sure they don't always know when you died so they just enter a date with no time.

So if you if you died on Jan 1 2022 and no time was entered then the database records it as

01/01/2022 00:00:00 (midnight)

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May 9, 2022·edited May 9, 2022

I can't follow all your technical talk.

I think you are saying this:

They record whether or not you're vaccinated at, say, 9 a.m. every day. Or whatever.

Now if you get vaccinated at 10:00 a.m you're still not recorded as vaccinated.

And won't be until tomorrow.

But if you die today at say 5p.m. there'll be no tomorrow for you.


So you'll be recorded as dying 'unvaccinated'.


Well I wish you'd said so at the beginning and then provided the reasoning.

My apologies if I've got it all wrong.

And my request for a clear statement that is correct.

If I have it right then it reads like they interview and ask if you've had a vax and if you're dead they can't ask and you can't reply 'yes, yesterday'. So you remain as unvaxed, right?

But that's unlikely, surely. Records of vaxxed or not vaxxed would be make at the time of vaxing.

So what? They're consulting the records to assess your status and if 'deceased' they don't consult to the day of death, only to the day prior.

This maybe seeming sensible to a young programmer - what's the point of looking for a record on the day he's dead?

I can easily see myself setting search parameters on an SQL database, say to run from 'date of admission' to 'day of death minus one' and thinking myself very clever.

That could be hard coded into some stats package they all use.

Please inform: have I got it all wrong? If so, how is it to be understood.

And sorry about my lack of intellectual acumen. :)

p.s. the scenario I paint - or any really - would be checkable wouldn't it? Hospital records of vaccinations matched against records of deaths?

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