Mathew, sorry I am a bit confused, would you say this also means that the vaccines did not kill many people? I heard about estimates of 1 death per 1000 doses. Or Joel Smalley said the vaccines killed more than 10 million worldwide. Do you think the vaccines had simply zero effect with regard to ACM, which also means they neither saved nor killed many people?
Ah, great question. I think that the vaccine-associated mortality is a bit less than Joel does, but his estimate is within my range. The variation of vaccination status between counties for the elderly is not extremely high, and that's where I think most vaccine-induced premature deaths occured. They also occured most often in people who would have died by now---life expectancy in nursing homes is not high. So, the effect on correlation charts such as these is smaller than one might imagine. I will look for the right words to explain that charts such as these do not answer the vaccine harms question all that well.
Edit:
Suppose mortality per thousand individuals is 14.2 in some county. If 70% of the people get vaccinated, and 1 in 1000 of them die, that boosts the total to 14.9. If 80% of them get vaccinated, that boosts the total to 15.0. As you can see, a large change in the vaccination rate would result in a small change in the ACM rate. That change is even smaller if many of those who died would have died in a few weeks or months, one way or another. The mortality curve for vaccine-induced deaths was, in my initial estimates in mid-2021, very steep---not quite as steep as the COVID-19 curve, but pretty steep.
A few points on the debate - not all of which were discussed above but I just thought I'd make them anyway!
1. in relation to vaccine harms, we mustn't forget that the idea of vaccinating out of the "pandemic" and lockdowns / many other harmful policies were symbiotic. Without the availability of the vaccine saviour narrative I believe that whatever "it" was in Spring 2020 (and we all have our views) "it" would have gone away as an issue rather quickly due to societal pressure.
The availability of vaccines for politicians to use to justify and maintain the extreme overreaction AND paint themselves as heroes as per the movie Contagion was simply irresistable.
So even if the vaccines had been saline, their mere availability would still have been incredibly harmful.
2. Just as we ought to have considerd life years (accounting the age) in any cost-benefit analysis of NPIs then so we really should for vaccine harms too, ie a short-term analysis of ACM is hiding the extent of the harm caused (as you allude).
3. It's not all about deaths - the disability data is looking horrendous.
4. The biological characteristics of these injections mean that it seems likely that harms will manifest over a long period, and in a broad range of diseases / symptoms which are indicative of autoimmunity / inflammation rather than discrete syndromes easily blamed on the injections, so the full full extent is almost certainly yet to be experienced, and when it is, there will be difficulties in attributing it to the cause.
One thing that I don't want to do with such a book is commit to making all arguments in one place. The book would become long and unreadable. But other books can be written.
I could not agree more with Jonathan and I think points 3 and 4 are absolutely true, but are easily being lost in the background noise.
As a chiropractor I have never seen witnessed an increase in diagnoses of all things auto-immune as I have since the forced shots (it was almost impossible to avoid them here in Oz if you wanted/needed to make an income).
Thyroid disorders
Crohn’s, Ulcerative colitis etc
New and unusually large MS lesions in long term stable patients
POTS
Cancers, many classed as stage 3-4 untreatable/inoperable
The list goes on and on, many too sold on the narrative to even think the ‘vaccines’ a possible cause/link, many more certain ‘Covid’ itself was the cause, fooled by media parroting junk science and lies.
This part is going to be monumental and it is heartbreaking to see day by day.
Yes .. and a note on autoimmunity in these times - there's a huge increase in autoimmune diseases *And a push to eat less meat. And probably mRNA vaccines in food animals very soon.
Some people keep autoimmunity under control by taking toxic drugs every day.
Others keep it under control with a very strict paleo diet of nothing besides meat, some veggies, fruits, fish, a few oils. Without red meat, there's hardly anything to eat or base a diet on - if trying to control autoimmunity naturally.
I hardly ate meat before, I eat a lot more now, after getting lab tests after covid Not certain it was from covid, but likely, I have markers of an autoimmune disease. Covid infection can do that without the injection - but makes sense it's more and faster moving in the vaccinated.
(If curious about brewing autoimmunity Before symptoms start, Labcorp's ANA profile 12 is a good place to start. Autonuclear antibodies.)
Eating less meat as a choice made much more sense before they poisoned most of the planet, with bioweapon virus (or whatever it is), and autoimmune-nightmare vaccine.
(& it is possible to get sick after covid, especially if other factors like Epstein Barr Virus. That's not a reason to get vaccinated obviously, but it's part of the full conversation) (I didn't get any shots, and didn't experience anything that felt like vaccine shedding. When I had covid it was months after the 4th booster push and just before the 5th booster.)
This is close to my view. This is dealing only with an outcome of death. There are so many other consequences, both measured as AE and as damage to society... Consider them Quality of Life issues. Plus, as a "vaccine," the level of deaths due to those vaccines that should call for removal of that shot may well be in the noise of a total mortality analytic. Unfortunately, when the vaccine is not a vaccine and the product is a DOD prototype with no quality or efficacy standards specified, and with total protection from legal options when it fails, the legal option is left to the states to craft legislation. Not many people have the stomach and the persistence (3 years for me, and not much to show) to craft and pass the necessary laws. These analytics are essential for one level of law, which can deal with mRNA technology and mandates, but there is a whole other level having to do with the criminality of all the federal deep state and the censorship through media.
My 1 in 2500 was for immediate deaths of the old and frail.
Deaths in younger people are more spread out and not es easy to quantify. Ed Dowd's work may help with that, but I haven't felt the need to shift priorities to calculate that. If I did, I'd have to sacrifice this or another project.
Thinking a little further about your original question above...since healthier/wealthier counties were more vaccinated, the result of adding some vaccine-induced mortality should compress the per capita mortality rates. This likely has a minute dampening effect on correlations, but otherwise leaves correlations intact.
That book sounds like essential reading - thank you for making the effort.
Can you add some graphs to this piece by medium and low income to make the point more clearly please? I am assuming that the apparent efficacy wanes with falling income?
If spring 2020 deaths are confounding via pull-forward in a lot of wealthy counties, then why not kick the robustness tires a bit by removing counties with spring 2020 deaths, e.g. NY+NJ.
California provides enough wealthy, healthy, vaxxed-up counties without spring 2020 deaths that should offer a good side-by-side with Southern states in 2021. Just a glance at worldometers and CA seems to outperform as far as 2021 deaths relative to the 20/21 winter wave, and 2018-relative deaths should show the same relative performance.
E.g., in Tennessee and Georgia you have death spikes in Delta and BA.1 era that are as high as 20/21 winter. In California those spikes are way lower. It's not like health and wealth are what is changing after 20/21 winter so the mix of users are the same, but the amount of use is different.
It is an interesting approach to remove a handful of "odd states" to see what the changes look like. Thanks for the suggestion. I do think that there were "events" that were controlled that cannot be easily variable-ized, so looking around the locales would sidestep the need for an iatrocide hypothesis or other similar confounders.
One of his coworkers responded to this article supporting the effort. I know some of the people in that circle, mostly superficially, but I'm sure they're happy if their work is used to make a good and honest case.
Mathew, I follow your posts because I find them highly educational. And I will send this one to my son, who is a statistician and also, someone who is not convinced that the data shows vaccine harm and/or lack of efficacy. This could become an interesting inter-family discussion point...
The best case involves all the data and evidence together, so any one post is just a vector view. But so far I haven't seen anything that contradicts the "Zero Efficacy Hypothesis".
Happy to hear it. I just also want to release an inexpensive copy for those who have followed my work and supported me during this odd diversion in my life.
In my opinion, if healthy user bias (HUB) and wealthy user bias (WUB), or whatever else, are the main things that cause vaccine effectiveness then that point should be driven home in every chapter with an explanation of what it is and *different* methods/words should be used to explain it almost in every chapter. It's simply hard to remember what healthy user bias is and it needs to be explained using a mixture of methods throughout the book (also, some people skip through the book or skip entire chapters)
I assume this book could be more important than any other book you could write and it's good that you say you are 3/4 through the first draft.
Write your book--we need it. The lack of statistical analysis of the data arguing for (and even against) the vaccines is staggering. Consider contacting Sky Horse publishing. I would think they'd be very interested in your book: https://www.skyhorsepublishing.com/.
I've been working on a book too- Medical Data and Analytic Manipulation During the Covid-19 Era: Dis- and Mis- Information and PsyOps- One section documents and compares all the analytic techiques that have been used. I then have another two books, one on Efficacy and one on Adverse Effects- where the results are presented in a kind of time line of analytics and propaganda. Both books are intended to be reference books for committees at the state level to write state laws to protect the state's citizens from both the public health process and the more general One World Order dictates. Want to work together? I'll comment below on the AE issue.
Epidemiology and Statistics have spots which can be distorted by reason of some fetches inherent in Math: the more authors like you bring forward subjects such as the Plandemia, the more future generations stand the chance of not be led astray by notorious politicians, MEDIA and Big Pharma.
I am going to try not to sound like a jerk, but I probably will. Just now this is non-poking constructive criticism..
I joined the Locals channel you have been pimping. If you are not a pot smoking, independantly weathly stock trader (as inyou are not available for the live stream) , I see no way to view your content after the fact.... This may be a technical glitch...
I realize (exclusivity) may be your point to the Locals channel. However, whenever I try and view L's shows after the fact, it doesn't work. Can you upload them to Rumble or whatever? Or can you provide some way viewers can watch after (with a 3-5 day delay?) the fact if they are busy?
I am not trying to personally attack you or Liam as I think you do a great service to the public. Which is why I paid for for the Substack. Can you point me in a direction I am missing?
Mathew, sorry I am a bit confused, would you say this also means that the vaccines did not kill many people? I heard about estimates of 1 death per 1000 doses. Or Joel Smalley said the vaccines killed more than 10 million worldwide. Do you think the vaccines had simply zero effect with regard to ACM, which also means they neither saved nor killed many people?
Ah, great question. I think that the vaccine-associated mortality is a bit less than Joel does, but his estimate is within my range. The variation of vaccination status between counties for the elderly is not extremely high, and that's where I think most vaccine-induced premature deaths occured. They also occured most often in people who would have died by now---life expectancy in nursing homes is not high. So, the effect on correlation charts such as these is smaller than one might imagine. I will look for the right words to explain that charts such as these do not answer the vaccine harms question all that well.
Edit:
Suppose mortality per thousand individuals is 14.2 in some county. If 70% of the people get vaccinated, and 1 in 1000 of them die, that boosts the total to 14.9. If 80% of them get vaccinated, that boosts the total to 15.0. As you can see, a large change in the vaccination rate would result in a small change in the ACM rate. That change is even smaller if many of those who died would have died in a few weeks or months, one way or another. The mortality curve for vaccine-induced deaths was, in my initial estimates in mid-2021, very steep---not quite as steep as the COVID-19 curve, but pretty steep.
Thank you for this.
A few points on the debate - not all of which were discussed above but I just thought I'd make them anyway!
1. in relation to vaccine harms, we mustn't forget that the idea of vaccinating out of the "pandemic" and lockdowns / many other harmful policies were symbiotic. Without the availability of the vaccine saviour narrative I believe that whatever "it" was in Spring 2020 (and we all have our views) "it" would have gone away as an issue rather quickly due to societal pressure.
The availability of vaccines for politicians to use to justify and maintain the extreme overreaction AND paint themselves as heroes as per the movie Contagion was simply irresistable.
So even if the vaccines had been saline, their mere availability would still have been incredibly harmful.
2. Just as we ought to have considerd life years (accounting the age) in any cost-benefit analysis of NPIs then so we really should for vaccine harms too, ie a short-term analysis of ACM is hiding the extent of the harm caused (as you allude).
3. It's not all about deaths - the disability data is looking horrendous.
4. The biological characteristics of these injections mean that it seems likely that harms will manifest over a long period, and in a broad range of diseases / symptoms which are indicative of autoimmunity / inflammation rather than discrete syndromes easily blamed on the injections, so the full full extent is almost certainly yet to be experienced, and when it is, there will be difficulties in attributing it to the cause.
One thing that I don't want to do with such a book is commit to making all arguments in one place. The book would become long and unreadable. But other books can be written.
I could not agree more with Jonathan and I think points 3 and 4 are absolutely true, but are easily being lost in the background noise.
As a chiropractor I have never seen witnessed an increase in diagnoses of all things auto-immune as I have since the forced shots (it was almost impossible to avoid them here in Oz if you wanted/needed to make an income).
Thyroid disorders
Crohn’s, Ulcerative colitis etc
New and unusually large MS lesions in long term stable patients
POTS
Cancers, many classed as stage 3-4 untreatable/inoperable
The list goes on and on, many too sold on the narrative to even think the ‘vaccines’ a possible cause/link, many more certain ‘Covid’ itself was the cause, fooled by media parroting junk science and lies.
This part is going to be monumental and it is heartbreaking to see day by day.
Yes .. and a note on autoimmunity in these times - there's a huge increase in autoimmune diseases *And a push to eat less meat. And probably mRNA vaccines in food animals very soon.
Some people keep autoimmunity under control by taking toxic drugs every day.
Others keep it under control with a very strict paleo diet of nothing besides meat, some veggies, fruits, fish, a few oils. Without red meat, there's hardly anything to eat or base a diet on - if trying to control autoimmunity naturally.
I hardly ate meat before, I eat a lot more now, after getting lab tests after covid Not certain it was from covid, but likely, I have markers of an autoimmune disease. Covid infection can do that without the injection - but makes sense it's more and faster moving in the vaccinated.
(If curious about brewing autoimmunity Before symptoms start, Labcorp's ANA profile 12 is a good place to start. Autonuclear antibodies.)
Eating less meat as a choice made much more sense before they poisoned most of the planet, with bioweapon virus (or whatever it is), and autoimmune-nightmare vaccine.
(& it is possible to get sick after covid, especially if other factors like Epstein Barr Virus. That's not a reason to get vaccinated obviously, but it's part of the full conversation) (I didn't get any shots, and didn't experience anything that felt like vaccine shedding. When I had covid it was months after the 4th booster push and just before the 5th booster.)
This is close to my view. This is dealing only with an outcome of death. There are so many other consequences, both measured as AE and as damage to society... Consider them Quality of Life issues. Plus, as a "vaccine," the level of deaths due to those vaccines that should call for removal of that shot may well be in the noise of a total mortality analytic. Unfortunately, when the vaccine is not a vaccine and the product is a DOD prototype with no quality or efficacy standards specified, and with total protection from legal options when it fails, the legal option is left to the states to craft legislation. Not many people have the stomach and the persistence (3 years for me, and not much to show) to craft and pass the necessary laws. These analytics are essential for one level of law, which can deal with mRNA technology and mandates, but there is a whole other level having to do with the criminality of all the federal deep state and the censorship through media.
Any data you can share on point 3? Thanks
Have a look at this which we published as HART (I am the author). It's a few months old but I don't think anything has improved since.
https://www.hartgroup.org/we-rightly-mourn-the-dead-but-mustnt-forget-the-disabled/
That's an amazing correlation. I'm confident to say these vaccines have increased disabilities, but not catastrophically as we feared they might.
Any more recent data? Do the vaccine induced disabilities get more or less common over time?
Thank you for telling me. So overall, you would agree that some million lives were probably terminated by the vaccines.
You estimated 1 death per 2500 doses if I remember correctly. So this would also indicate that some >5 million deaths occured due to the vaccines.
So, many vaccine deaths occured in people who were very old and frail already?
But... besides older people, several younger people also died from the vaccines, as far as I know?
My 1 in 2500 was for immediate deaths of the old and frail.
Deaths in younger people are more spread out and not es easy to quantify. Ed Dowd's work may help with that, but I haven't felt the need to shift priorities to calculate that. If I did, I'd have to sacrifice this or another project.
Thinking a little further about your original question above...since healthier/wealthier counties were more vaccinated, the result of adding some vaccine-induced mortality should compress the per capita mortality rates. This likely has a minute dampening effect on correlations, but otherwise leaves correlations intact.
Mathew, what is your opinion about Denis Rancourt's work that shows 13+ million people have been killed by the gene-therapy shots?
https://denisrancourt.ca/entries.php?id=126&name=2023_02_09_age_stratified_covid_19_vaccine_dose_fatality_rate_for_israel_and_australia
Thanks for another great post. Peace. :-)
That book sounds like essential reading - thank you for making the effort.
Can you add some graphs to this piece by medium and low income to make the point more clearly please? I am assuming that the apparent efficacy wanes with falling income?
We will make more charts that break down by variable bands to help readers see what are and are not functional variables.
This will be a very important book. Point well made in this article.
Agreed, Ernie.
If spring 2020 deaths are confounding via pull-forward in a lot of wealthy counties, then why not kick the robustness tires a bit by removing counties with spring 2020 deaths, e.g. NY+NJ.
California provides enough wealthy, healthy, vaxxed-up counties without spring 2020 deaths that should offer a good side-by-side with Southern states in 2021. Just a glance at worldometers and CA seems to outperform as far as 2021 deaths relative to the 20/21 winter wave, and 2018-relative deaths should show the same relative performance.
E.g., in Tennessee and Georgia you have death spikes in Delta and BA.1 era that are as high as 20/21 winter. In California those spikes are way lower. It's not like health and wealth are what is changing after 20/21 winter so the mix of users are the same, but the amount of use is different.
( https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/tennessee/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/georgia/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/california/ )
A confounder could be that CA didn't open up as much in 2021, but really that shouldn't be too confounding because it also applies to winter 20/21.
It is an interesting approach to remove a handful of "odd states" to see what the changes look like. Thanks for the suggestion. I do think that there were "events" that were controlled that cannot be easily variable-ized, so looking around the locales would sidestep the need for an iatrocide hypothesis or other similar confounders.
Thank you Mathew. Seriously heavy lifting. I appreciate the time and energy and insight it takes to document HUB and WUB.
Be well!
Thanks, William.
Cheers.
Book will be awesome. Will take it every time a doctor mentions Vs. You should include Fenton in you effort. I think he is a good guy.
One of his coworkers responded to this article supporting the effort. I know some of the people in that circle, mostly superficially, but I'm sure they're happy if their work is used to make a good and honest case.
Mathew, I follow your posts because I find them highly educational. And I will send this one to my son, who is a statistician and also, someone who is not convinced that the data shows vaccine harm and/or lack of efficacy. This could become an interesting inter-family discussion point...
The best case involves all the data and evidence together, so any one post is just a vector view. But so far I haven't seen anything that contradicts the "Zero Efficacy Hypothesis".
100% I want a book written by you. I hate reading off of screens, especially long and complicated (to me) pieces like you produce.
Put me down as your 1st sale please.
I may do something like release an inexpensive electronic version first so that RTE readers can download to kindle at nominal cost.
I don't do kindle.... I'll buy a signed copy. :-)
Happy to hear it. I just also want to release an inexpensive copy for those who have followed my work and supported me during this odd diversion in my life.
Copy that Mathew. Thank you! ☺️👍
Can you share your source of ACM at county level? I'd like to go down to that level for a complimentary analysis I did recently at state level.... https://open.substack.com/pub/inumero/p/us-all-cause-mortality-2020-22-vs?r=tv61s&utm_medium=ios&utm_campaign=post
Yes. I will give you Dropbox access to all our data.
Thanks!
In my opinion, if healthy user bias (HUB) and wealthy user bias (WUB), or whatever else, are the main things that cause vaccine effectiveness then that point should be driven home in every chapter with an explanation of what it is and *different* methods/words should be used to explain it almost in every chapter. It's simply hard to remember what healthy user bias is and it needs to be explained using a mixture of methods throughout the book (also, some people skip through the book or skip entire chapters)
I assume this book could be more important than any other book you could write and it's good that you say you are 3/4 through the first draft.
I suspect most people will do fine with the availability of a chapter called, "What is the Healthy User Bias?"
Write your book--we need it. The lack of statistical analysis of the data arguing for (and even against) the vaccines is staggering. Consider contacting Sky Horse publishing. I would think they'd be very interested in your book: https://www.skyhorsepublishing.com/.
I've been working on a book too- Medical Data and Analytic Manipulation During the Covid-19 Era: Dis- and Mis- Information and PsyOps- One section documents and compares all the analytic techiques that have been used. I then have another two books, one on Efficacy and one on Adverse Effects- where the results are presented in a kind of time line of analytics and propaganda. Both books are intended to be reference books for committees at the state level to write state laws to protect the state's citizens from both the public health process and the more general One World Order dictates. Want to work together? I'll comment below on the AE issue.
Keep writing!!!
I like the idea of ACMR analysis of pandemic and post-pandemic years, normalized to an arbitrary prior year, broken down by county or region.
This is a simple to understand, yet robust test for effectivity of the unprecedented mass injection campaigns in protecting the public from death.
Epidemiology and Statistics have spots which can be distorted by reason of some fetches inherent in Math: the more authors like you bring forward subjects such as the Plandemia, the more future generations stand the chance of not be led astray by notorious politicians, MEDIA and Big Pharma.
Mr. Crawford,
I am going to try not to sound like a jerk, but I probably will. Just now this is non-poking constructive criticism..
I joined the Locals channel you have been pimping. If you are not a pot smoking, independantly weathly stock trader (as inyou are not available for the live stream) , I see no way to view your content after the fact.... This may be a technical glitch...
I realize (exclusivity) may be your point to the Locals channel. However, whenever I try and view L's shows after the fact, it doesn't work. Can you upload them to Rumble or whatever? Or can you provide some way viewers can watch after (with a 3-5 day delay?) the fact if they are busy?
I am not trying to personally attack you or Liam as I think you do a great service to the public. Which is why I paid for for the Substack. Can you point me in a direction I am missing?
Regards,
Josh