Aug 21, 2021Liked by Mathew Crawford

Hi Mathew,

I am repeatedly hearing the media blare, "the vaccine is ~99% effective against hospitalization etc." Yet I also see the rapidly declining indications of efficacy in UK and Israel, where ~40-60% of hospitalizations are among the vaccinated. I find it implausible that there would be such stark differences in case rates, even accounting for differing levels of vaccination. I'd love your take on this. ie, do you trust this data? (and I don't mean the Cleveland Clinic data referred to which used an irrelevant timeframe to make such inferences, that is clearly bullshit, I mean the more recent claims which are too numerous to even bother citing).

The only thing that I think could skew it that much, aside from outright fabrication, is that the tests in the US are run at different cycle thresholds among the vaccinated vs the unvaccinated. But that, too, seems like it would be difficult to pull off logisitically. ie, a hospital gets 100 sick unvaccinated people, and orders PCR tests at 40(Ct) and finds 99 of them are positive, vs 100 vaccinated people and orders PCR tests at 28 (Ct) and finds 1 of them is positive. While that is what would happen if they did such a glaringly manipulative protocol, it would take implausible (to me) levels of coordination to make sure all these hospitals treated the testing so asymmetrically. Am I wrong about that? What is your thinking on the issue?

It requires mental force for me to stay open to the fact that these data could be legitimate. My bias to distrust the official narrative is nearing calcification, which has its own dangers, and I want to be weary of that. But either way, even if it as remarkably effective at preventing severe cases as 99%!, then shouldn't the vaccinated feel highly assured in their safety and not exposed to undue risk by the unvaccinated? ie- WTF would the rationale be for mandates/passports etc if the vaccinated were afforded so much protection?

Something doesn't add up and I need help figuring it out. If I had to boil it down to one question, do you trust these claims?

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I am not surprised at all by the superficial critiques leveled at your analysis. The barrier to entry for these conversations is high and if you don't have a robust statistical background (or the desire to learn), then most people have to take the approach of "the media tells me this is laughably false, so there has to be an obvious mistake in the methodology." Unfortunately, after years of research into various unrelated topics like cosmology, history, etc, I have come to realize that almost nothing that gets promoted as "conclusive" in the mainstream actually has the necessary legwork backing it. Most folks are content (whether through lack of time, cognitive dissonance, or fear) to believe that "people smarter than figured this out." Which is partially amazing because I also think most people of average or greater intelligence are also aware of the conflict of interests in our corporate media, medicine, government, etc.

I believe the extreme specialization of knowledge plays a large role in this... most people, by necessity, are very familiar with their own little niche and have very little exposure to information outside of their particular sphere (this obviously contributes to the Gell-Man effect, described a few articles back). When one considers this specificity within the medical industry alone, for example, just within the last half century or so, the average person has gone from having a primary physician who handled essentially all of their maladies to the point where their main doctor more or less just exists to write referrals to other experts, so every person has a full team of medical authorities responsible for their health (to say nothing of the issues that arise when we outsource responsibility for our personal well-being to third parties who have, no matter how well-intentioned, a profit motive).

So, most of us don't have the time required to fully understand a wide range of topics, so many attempt to assess validity by judging the analyst's character nstead of reviewing the data (and the quality of said data). This I further compounded by herd mentality and not wanting to appear as a foolish tin-foil hat nutter. The funny thing is, I have some very unorthodox opinions and I also do not subscribe to grand, unified conspiracies. Certainly, concealed agendas and propaganda do exist, but for many topics, it's as simplistic and naive to believe in hidden cabals making world impacting decisions as it is to believe the mainstream narrative. Paradigms, which arise both organically and with motivated assistance, sort of take on a life of their own. Essentially, I think the problem is a symptom of over-organization and historically, this is what contributes to the fall of a civilization. We create a complex machine with very specific parts that are not interchangeable and the focus shifts to filling these precise roles, at the expense of general understanding. So, contrary to much conspiratorial thinking, the problem is that eventually there's no one pulling the strings because everyone's forgotten how to do so, lost in the minutia of specificity. Compound this with a culture that values brevity above accuracy (Twitter and it's character limit is a wonderful sign of the times) and I believe that analytical "mistakes" on the level of what is described on this substack are to be expected as the rule, not the exception.

Apologies for my rambling, as I review more of the data and analysis here, I hope to be able to contribute in a more direct way. There are certainly enough red flags in the data I've reviewed over the last 18 months to cause me to reject most of the "accepted" premises of this pandemic, but I haven't applied the sort of statistical analysis done here in a couple decades, so I have a lot of mental cobwebs that need clearing. But even just a cursory review of the VAERS database should alarm anyone with even a basic knowledge of math, it's hard to hand-wave away AEs and deaths that are at least an order of magnitude higher than all other vaccines combined (which appear to have about the same total amount administered when compared to the total COVID doses). And I don't believe that assuming that the COVID vaccines AEs are recorded more consistently than AEs from other vaccines would be enough to get them to a similar level of safety, especially in light of reports that COVID vaccine AEs have been encouraged to not be recorded. Like Matthew though (and I think most who are interested in researching this, contrary to "popular opinion"), I do not want this to be the case... I'd rather not live in a world where a dangerous, un-approved, ineffective experimental gene therapy is promoted and mandated. In another classic case of projection, the "follow the 'science'" folks somehow think that the people who point out potential hazards are suffering from a form of wishful thinking... which I can't help but find incredibly odd. At no point in my life did I want to be a contrarian who disagrees with virtually everything presented by traditional academia via the mainstream (and social) media. It's frankly exhausting and certainly a lot harder than simply wearing a mask and getting a couple shots. If I was going to pick something to have "wishful thinking" about, I'd pick something a lot better!

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I am focused on raising awareness of the need for 50ng/ml 125nmol/L or more circulating 25-hydoxyvitamin D, which is required for proper immune function, in a world where MDs tend to think half this level is OK, and were most people have half to a tenth of this level. Please see the research articles cited at: "What every MD should know about vitamin D and the immune system" https://vitamindstopscovid.info/05-mds/ .

In this context, vaccines and lockdowns are 3rd and 4th best approaches to suppressing COVID-19 severity, viral shedding and so transmission compared to the number 1 solution of population wide vitamin D3 supplementation (such as 0.125mg 5000IU / day for 70kg 154lb bodyweight) and the number 2 solution which is early treatment, with calcifediol (AKA 25-hydroxyvitamin D), with ivermectin, melatonin, zinc, vitamin C, magnesium and perhaps an anti-inflammatory SSRI. I will soon be adding a page on these early treatments to the above site. Either one of these would be safer, easier, less expensive and more effective than vaccination - but they are less profitable, and many MDs can't imagine how important vitamin D is to the immune system.

I keep an eye on the debates surrounding mRNA and adenovirus vector COVID-19 "vaccines", but don't have the time to thoroughly evaluate the growing number of concerns about this. This article links to other concerning neurological impacts of some of these vaccines:


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Aug 21, 2021Liked by Mathew Crawford

apparent lack of vaccine efficacy could be explained by:

vaccines are effective, but their effect is approximately cancelled out by risk compensation - the vaccinated put themselves in situations with greater risk of infection, believing they are protected.

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shouldnt the RCTs be judgd as the "BEST' data we have so far? And if so, we saw no change in overall mortality over 6 months in 40K people. None.

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Mathew, I appreciate your attention to how vaccines can put selective pressure on the virus to evolve to more deadly, transmissible strains. This is indisputable.


One is the immunity that is now rapidly building in the human population. On one hand, immunity reduces the likelihood of people getting infected, and may hamper viral replication even when they are. “That means there will be fewer mutations emerging if we vaccinate more people,” Çevik says. On the other hand, any immune escape variant now has a huge advantage over other variants.

The scientific community has put all their eggs in the Covid vaccine basket, targeting the spike protein. It appears that the Delta variant is more transmissible, rather than escaping immunity.


That said, immune escape seems inevitable.


"There is now clear evidence of the changing antigenicity of the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein and of the amino acid changes that affect antibody neutralization. Spike amino acid substitutions and deletions that impact neutralizing antibodies are present at significant frequencies in the global virus population, and there is emerging evidence of variants exhibiting resistance to antibody-mediated immunity elicited by vaccines."

Where states are doing a better job on vaccine breakthroughs (like SC), I acknowledge that Covid deaths and hospitalizations still skew toward the unvaccinated.


If indeed, the FDA fully authorizes the Pfizer vaccine next week, one must wonder whether it will still come with blanket immunity for any severe adverse events or death. As politicized as vaccines are, my guess is that Congress will swiftly pass a bill or there will be an executive order coming from the Biden administration.

As for masks, I am not with you, Mathew. In high risk situations, I will wear an N-95 or KN-95. I wear other masks with less conviction that I am really doing much to protect myself or others. But then again, I will admit to magical thinking about a lot of innocuous things I do like taking Vitamin D and zinc.

But I do understand why this global effort to vaccinate was undertaken. We can point blaming fingers to the FDA and CDC for data obfuscation/manipulation and to the MSM for taking a stenographic approach. The paucity of data makes it challenging to interpret transmission of the disease and severe adverse events, including deaths, subsequent to Covid vaccines. Mathew, I do hope you don't double down to the point that you lose site of the difficulty for the average working person, who becomes numbed and crazed by statistics.

It is that much more important to mitigate Covid cases with antiviral drugs, including mild and asymptomatic cases. So many generic candidate drugs already exist that should be used in RCTs for mild/asymptomatic individuals--ivermectin being one of them.

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This article highlights a looming crisis in the US military - 1/3 of 1.3 million active-duty members are unvaccinated, and the government is attempting to convince / cajole / force them to be vaccinated by mid-September, 3 weeks from now.


The article repeatedly misuses "innoculate" as a synonym for mRNA or adenovirus vector COVID-19 vaccination. This term properly only applies to the subset of true vaccines (these treatments are not vaccines by prior definitions) which involve infecting the person with a replicating bacteria or virus to raise immunity against the more dangerous, but closely related, pathogen which causes the serious disease.

Both the Delta variant and disputes about compulsory COVID-19 vaccinations have the potential to weaken US military effectiveness at a time when the Chinese Communist Party is threatening to invade Taiwan.

I wish all MDs read the research articles I cite at: https://vitamindstopscovid.info/05-mds/ . Then the worst of the harm and death from COVID-19 could be avoided by D3 supplementation and early treatment, with much reduced transmission so there would no longer be a pandemic. COVID-19 vaccines would only be advisable for those who are especially vulnerable - mainly those who are suffering from obesity.

I have only glanced at this: https://www.ukcolumn.org/video/frances-long-time-vaccine-policy-chief-covid-policy-is-completely-stupid-and-unethical . There are an increasing number of vaccine-critical interviews with people who are experts in relevant fields. (However this interview cites Delores Cahill, who - though extraordinarily well qualified - is an out-and-out COVID-19 denialist regarding the harm the disease causes, including to children.) These, the increasing shrillness and desperation of the pro-vaccine government-business-majority-public-increasingly-angry-mob will give many people pause for thought.

It is likely that the facial disfiguration photos https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamadermatology/fullarticle/2782441 will do the rounds on social media. While Bells Palsy can be caused by COVID-19, it can also be caused by COVID-19 vaccines: https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullarticle/2779389 and https://www.medpagetoday.com/infectiousdisease/covid19vaccine/93643 . Some of the 40 articles found with https://scholar.google.com.au/scholar?hl=en&as_sdt=0%2C5&q=%22Bells+Palsy%22+%22COVID-19%22+vaccine&btnG= report on such occurrences. Apparently this does not usually lead to lasting difficulties, but the fact that the vaccine, which is supposed to be active in the person's arm, is causing serious, if transient, neurological dysfunction, is a real concern.

Recently the friendly, pro-vaccine, government funded Australian Broadcasting Corporation reported on a government minister in the state of NSW suffering Bells Palsy during a press conference: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-08-19/nsw-minister-victor-dominello-bells-palsy-press-conference/100389606 There is no suggestion that he was infected with COVID-19. The article was completely avoidant of the possibility that it was caused by recent COVID-19 vaccination: "According to the Australian government's Health Direct website, most people fully recover from Bell's palsy, with improvements noticeable in two weeks and full recovery in three to six months. It's believed viral infections are the main cause of the paralysis."

I can easily imagine a sudden onset of Bells Palsy being potentially deadly for multiple people if the sufferer is driving.

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Hey Mathew. Thank you for your hard work. I am a supporter. Your moment of Zen chart is very interesting. No correlation between county’s Covid rates and vaccine rates. So either the vaccines have no effect or there is another explanation. I’m serious when I say this. 😊 Maybe there is no Covid virus. Maybe there are no viruses as we’ve been taught. Many smart scientists throughout history have disagreed with “germ theory” and believed that toxins caused disease, and that viruses are waste products made by the cells, not the source of sickness. Polio can be explained by the arsenic based pesticides and DDT. HIV can be explained by gay men inhaling nitrite based “poppers” (drugs), and intravenous drug users. All “viral infections” can be explained by toxemia. Covid symptoms are loss of taste and smell and dry cough, trouble breathing and death. Nurses saying people cannot breathe. They’re suffocating. All those symptoms are radiation poisoning symptoms.

Currently, the population is already sick with heart disease, cancer, diabetes. We don’t eat naturally so probably a little malnourished and we are surrounded by radiation producing technology topped off recently by the worst yet. 5G. Wuhan was the world’s first full 5G city. Thought?

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This is very informative, as per usual. I hope the "bounty" comment was not for real, though!

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