I only recently found your site, it's got a lot of great analysis.
I wondered if you have looked at the more recent UK vaccine surveillance files?
Starting I think around week 36 they began reporting rates per 100K population (there are also time series of vaccination rates broken down by age).
Anyway, a strange phenomenon has arisen where case rates are higher among the vaccinated population, although hospitalization and death still appears at lower rates.
Week over week, the difference in case rates has continued to get worse for some months now.
I'm really not sure what to make of it, and wondered if you had seen it or written about it?
One possible theory is that the delta variant finds more fertile ground in vaccinated populations due to the fact that it evades the NTD antibodies produced by the vaccine.. but perhaps delta did not seem generally more adaptive (and therefore did not spread widely) in largely unvaccinated populations?
See these for more discussion of evolution of delta and vaccine evasion:
Using the data source “SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern and variants under investigation in England, Technical Briefing 17”, UK government document dated June 25th, found here https://www.gov.uk/coronavirus (use the search), looking at tables 3, 4 and 8, you can conclude three things; (a) vaccinations are effective against COVID; (b) the COVID Delta variant is about 4x less deadly than the COVID Alpha variant; (c) being old sucks. Here is more detail:
1) 50-and-overs are a hundred times less likely to die once exposed to COVID if they are vaccinated, compared with not being vaccinated. This is a combination of ~20x less likely to be infected and ~4.3x less likely to die once infected.
2) The under-50s are ~24x less likely to die of COVID if they are vaccinated than not just because they are ~20x less likely to be infected and ~20% less likely to die once infected. (But they are not very likely to die, esp. if the are young.)
3) Under 50s have a 1 in 1800 chance of being killed by COVID (Alpha variant) once they catch it.
4) 50-and-overs have a 1 in 21 chance of being killed by COVID (Alpha variant) once they catch it.
5) Under 50s have a 1 in 10,000 chance of being killed by COVID (Delta variant) once they catch it.
6) 50-and-overs have a 1 in 88 chance of being killed by COVID (Delta variant) once they catch it.
Nefarious has a ring to it.
Hi Michael,
I only recently found your site, it's got a lot of great analysis.
I wondered if you have looked at the more recent UK vaccine surveillance files?
Starting I think around week 36 they began reporting rates per 100K population (there are also time series of vaccination rates broken down by age).
Anyway, a strange phenomenon has arisen where case rates are higher among the vaccinated population, although hospitalization and death still appears at lower rates.
Week over week, the difference in case rates has continued to get worse for some months now.
I'm really not sure what to make of it, and wondered if you had seen it or written about it?
One possible theory is that the delta variant finds more fertile ground in vaccinated populations due to the fact that it evades the NTD antibodies produced by the vaccine.. but perhaps delta did not seem generally more adaptive (and therefore did not spread widely) in largely unvaccinated populations?
See these for more discussion of evolution of delta and vaccine evasion:
https://eugyppius.substack.com/p/the-mystery-of-the-variants
https://eugyppius.substack.com/p/preprint-the-sars-cov-2-delta-variant
Thank you so much for all your hard work!
You are keeping many people slightly more sane (by some metrics).
Using the data source “SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern and variants under investigation in England, Technical Briefing 17”, UK government document dated June 25th, found here https://www.gov.uk/coronavirus (use the search), looking at tables 3, 4 and 8, you can conclude three things; (a) vaccinations are effective against COVID; (b) the COVID Delta variant is about 4x less deadly than the COVID Alpha variant; (c) being old sucks. Here is more detail:
1) 50-and-overs are a hundred times less likely to die once exposed to COVID if they are vaccinated, compared with not being vaccinated. This is a combination of ~20x less likely to be infected and ~4.3x less likely to die once infected.
2) The under-50s are ~24x less likely to die of COVID if they are vaccinated than not just because they are ~20x less likely to be infected and ~20% less likely to die once infected. (But they are not very likely to die, esp. if the are young.)
3) Under 50s have a 1 in 1800 chance of being killed by COVID (Alpha variant) once they catch it.
4) 50-and-overs have a 1 in 21 chance of being killed by COVID (Alpha variant) once they catch it.
5) Under 50s have a 1 in 10,000 chance of being killed by COVID (Delta variant) once they catch it.
6) 50-and-overs have a 1 in 88 chance of being killed by COVID (Delta variant) once they catch it.