The jury room is about the only place where your vote matters. One vote can save an innocent man from going to prison. The jury is the last and only reliable bulwark against tyranny.
I never made it through all of the TAOCP volumes. But it is mind expanding.
It may be one of the small handful of most important papers during the pandemic. Written by an outsider. What a sad, but crushing indictment of the system. Numerous systems.
I've done multiple presentations about the types of censoring and imputation methods involved in clinical trials and public health data. Ignorable missing (MCAR and MAR) have statistical methods(MI, FCS, MCMC, or EM) to cope with this type data and it is acceptable to approximate . When you have informative missing/censoring (NMAR) there is no optimal method to fix the issue. ALL METHODS LEAD TO BIAS ESTIMATORS ,even multiple imputation will not be successful. The best you can do is sensitivity analysis by using the extremes to impute and come up with a wide rage of possibilities.
Sorry, my home is flooded, so I'm responding from my phone alt account...
Sensitivity analyses are the typically recommended way to get at the bias, but in this case, the data appears to show null efficacy under reasonable assumptions, so a simple model suffices. From there, we can alter some parameters I guess, but the holistic data will tell a clear story from numerous angles.
While there is never a good time to serve, you have to take the opportunity when it arises because there is nothing better you can do with your time as a citizen of this country. Oddly, I am a lawyer but have had the good fortune to serve as a juror twice. Once before and once after the JD. The first case was an accident that was clearly trumped up injuries. We awarded the child a small sum for being used and gave the adult plaintiff nothing. The jury felt very righteous. On the second, a criminal trial, of course I was made foreman and then hung it in favor of the defendant. Quite the experience both times and I highly recommend it. I am probably one of a very few people who have played every role: prosecutor/plaintiff’s lawyer, defense, judge, juror, expert witness and mediator in both civil and criminal. I can tell you that if I were charged with a crime I would waive my right to a jury trial without hesitation. Especially after also teaching college for a time. The grand jury is another matter entirely.
Citizens have few opportunities to have a real life experience with the system. Jury service is available to everyone. Until you actually experience it you cannot appreciate how it operates.
Being on a jury is one of the most patriotic things you can do. I've been on 2 and enjoyed both. Be aware of jury nullification and inform your fellow jurors (if the case warrants it), the lawyers aren't allowed to bring the subject up but it is entirely in your Constitutional right to do so. Also volunteer to be the foreman, they'll listen to you more if you are (and you'll be the smartest one out of the 12, so they need to be listening to you).
Reeder's paper was excellent and very approachable. unfortunately, the biases he proposes will never be addressed by the study authors or anyone pumping the narrative. i'm really looking forward to seeing how informative censoring models can be applied to finance. i can see how summary statistics introduce bias to traditional time series analysis and risk metrics. the null vaccine concept seems like an important jump. hope you're back settled in your living arrangements soon.
The jury room is about the only place where your vote matters. One vote can save an innocent man from going to prison. The jury is the last and only reliable bulwark against tyranny.
I never made it through all of the TAOCP volumes. But it is mind expanding.
Agreed, this was an excellent paper. Ran into from other sources a while ago. Looking forward to your thoughts/expansion!
It may be one of the small handful of most important papers during the pandemic. Written by an outsider. What a sad, but crushing indictment of the system. Numerous systems.
I've done multiple presentations about the types of censoring and imputation methods involved in clinical trials and public health data. Ignorable missing (MCAR and MAR) have statistical methods(MI, FCS, MCMC, or EM) to cope with this type data and it is acceptable to approximate . When you have informative missing/censoring (NMAR) there is no optimal method to fix the issue. ALL METHODS LEAD TO BIAS ESTIMATORS ,even multiple imputation will not be successful. The best you can do is sensitivity analysis by using the extremes to impute and come up with a wide rage of possibilities.
Sorry, my home is flooded, so I'm responding from my phone alt account...
Sensitivity analyses are the typically recommended way to get at the bias, but in this case, the data appears to show null efficacy under reasonable assumptions, so a simple model suffices. From there, we can alter some parameters I guess, but the holistic data will tell a clear story from numerous angles.
Been in the flood situation. Such a drag.
While there is never a good time to serve, you have to take the opportunity when it arises because there is nothing better you can do with your time as a citizen of this country. Oddly, I am a lawyer but have had the good fortune to serve as a juror twice. Once before and once after the JD. The first case was an accident that was clearly trumped up injuries. We awarded the child a small sum for being used and gave the adult plaintiff nothing. The jury felt very righteous. On the second, a criminal trial, of course I was made foreman and then hung it in favor of the defendant. Quite the experience both times and I highly recommend it. I am probably one of a very few people who have played every role: prosecutor/plaintiff’s lawyer, defense, judge, juror, expert witness and mediator in both civil and criminal. I can tell you that if I were charged with a crime I would waive my right to a jury trial without hesitation. Especially after also teaching college for a time. The grand jury is another matter entirely.
Citizens have few opportunities to have a real life experience with the system. Jury service is available to everyone. Until you actually experience it you cannot appreciate how it operates.
Cross your fingers for a grand jury. A runaway grand jury can theoretically accomplish *anything.*
Being on a jury is one of the most patriotic things you can do. I've been on 2 and enjoyed both. Be aware of jury nullification and inform your fellow jurors (if the case warrants it), the lawyers aren't allowed to bring the subject up but it is entirely in your Constitutional right to do so. Also volunteer to be the foreman, they'll listen to you more if you are (and you'll be the smartest one out of the 12, so they need to be listening to you).
Reeder's paper was excellent and very approachable. unfortunately, the biases he proposes will never be addressed by the study authors or anyone pumping the narrative. i'm really looking forward to seeing how informative censoring models can be applied to finance. i can see how summary statistics introduce bias to traditional time series analysis and risk metrics. the null vaccine concept seems like an important jump. hope you're back settled in your living arrangements soon.