A Breakthrough in Modeling: Informative Censoring
The Chloroquine Wars Part XCV
"Random numbers should be generated with a method chosen at random." -Donald Knuth
Nobody could possibly realize how smart Donald Knuth is until they've tackled a problem whose answer is not simply statistical, but actively hidden by other human beings with the aid of automated computation.
Working on a challenging modeling problem with the help of a friend.
Thanks to Mark Reeder, I think I have the final piece of a tremendous puzzle. I believe I can explain essentially all aspects of the conflicting data over vaccine efficacy, and in a way that will be convincing to good, honest, and open data minds.
On a practical level, I will explain how informative censoring---a concept that seems relatively recently named---is one of the most important lessons for a financial trader to understand. I'm often asked for lessons in how to trade, and I usually give specific answers about past scenarios, some real explanations about fundamental statistical methods, and explanations of structural weaknesses in financial systems, but I know I'm always short-changing the listener and I'm up front about that. But ultimately, the concept of informative censoring relates directly to the processes of identifying some of the best trades.
I may put together a spreadsheet and then a video explaining the modeling process, but frustratingly that won't happen quickly because I have jury duty this week and so few people are showing up that there isn't even room to dismiss even somebody like me with N-sigma unusual views.
To be honest, I would probably enjoy sitting on a jury, doing my best to help society control interpersonal conflict and harm. Most of the time. I might one day be one of those old men who strolls over to the courthouse and volunteers for grand juries once every few moon cycles, and writes about the process. A good court system, which we have [in pieces] still, is part of the framework of the kind of societal machinery that promotes better lives lived, on the whole.
But this week, the task feels like a waste of potential value of time. Sometimes random is just random.
If you want to be follow what's coming in future articles and maybe a video soon, read the paper linked to Mark's name.
The jury room is about the only place where your vote matters. One vote can save an innocent man from going to prison. The jury is the last and only reliable bulwark against tyranny.
I never made it through all of the TAOCP volumes. But it is mind expanding.
Agreed, this was an excellent paper. Ran into from other sources a while ago. Looking forward to your thoughts/expansion!