It’s strange in American culture to kick your kid out at 18 to go be an adult. Most other cultures hold enormous value in family and generations are known to stay together to help as new babies are born and as old folks need care. Here, we think the nuclear family unit is best, we pay others to watch our kids and let our elderly die alone in nursing homes.
When you own (and control) your own land and house, you can construct an addition, new house or at least buy a trailer. This still happens in rural US, but not in cities where many rent or are limited by zoning laws and building codes.
Same! My mom lives with me. By choice, not necessity! And all my sons are welcome to stay. And their partners are welcome in my house. And when they come of age, I hope they want me to stick around.
What an interesting way of thinking about these problems. I never before realized that I was flat the housing market, though I recognize now from my feelings about it (indifferent) that I am.
And what a great insight about the homeless and the fracturing of families. When I was 18 I was expected to get out on my own as soon as I graduated from high school. I was out within days.
But it wasn't that my parents didn't care about me. It's that they were raising seven children, it was physically and financially exhausting, and I was conscious that they needed me to help by getting out on my own. They needed to be freed from feeding me and they needed my bedroom space for the younger kids.
I loved them, so I wanted to help them out by leaving.
So I went to college for a year, and met and married my wife there my freshman year. She was pregnant within a couple months of our wedding and I had to drop out of school to support my new family. Our second child was born just before I turned 20. But I wanted a family. We had no thoughts of abortion. I wanted to replace the loving, tight-knit family I had left.
So it seems key to me that the problem is not so much about economics as love. My family loved me and I loved them, so when it was time to leave I wanted a family. If you want a family, you work out a way to care for it.
If you're cast out, unloved, you're probably horrified at the idea of a family. There's no incentive to get a job handling baggage for Greyhound (my first job as a married man), and then work your way up to better things, to pay for an apartment and support a family when you don't want a family and you've learned in some deep way not even to want yourself.
My father was a janitor when he married my mother. She never held a job. She cared for their home and children. I don't think it's possible for ghetto families now to be poorer than we were. I think American values and attitudes changed and I think they were changed by malicious people.
My wife says she remembers the day those values changed. She thinks it was in 1972, the day the book Open Marriage came out. Her father read that book and promptly abandoned her family for a file clerk at his office. She can still feel the anger and horror she felt the day he left. Her littlest sister, who was 5 at the time, never recovered. To this day she is constantly on the edge of homelessness.
"This Is The Greatest Bubble Of All Time In All Things “By Two Orders Of Magnitude" - Michael Burry
Idiot bubble is an interesting way to put it. The root of the problem seems to be the all-too-human impulse of "If it gets me more resources and power, then it must be good!".
Thank you for this information. The problem has been getting worse and your explanation adds to my understanding that it was based on addiction and mental illness.
You don't have to blame immigrants to accept that unchecked immigration hurts a native population and virtually always hurts those at the bottom of the economic ladder.
I haven't seen anything resembling equilibrium in my 40 years. I've only ever seen it exist as a hammer against American labor, voting blocs, and culture.
Most people cannot afford to buy a house outright. They borrow against future income, which is essentially long market to varying degrees depending on type of skillset they accumulate, and buy a house.
So owning a home is in effect the portfolio: V = long RE+ short Mkt.
Given that RE beta is around 0.6-0.8, the portfolio is actually short the Mkt (for a large range of Mkt from not too bad to very good). However, if the Mkt does very bad, the loan is defaulted and the house is lost i.e. V = 0.
I could say more on the relationship between short Mkt part and the skillset. That's probably a substack post in itself.
A lot of home loans are about leverage and capital deployment, but I agree, there are interesting aspects to the asset conversion process for the tweeners.
Essex County Massachusetts housing market is pretty wild. Assuming BlackRock or someone like that is behind it. At least the old timers can cash out and move north to NH or Maine with a good chunk of change to help them in retirement. That's pretty much what's going on around here. I'm interested what's up with these "replacements" moving in... (my town is in sell mode BUT my neighborhood is in SELL NOW MODE!!)
Think deeper. Why do people do drugs? Is it wholly chemical, or is it because their early life experiences did not allow them to learn to appreciate non-chemically-enhanced reality?
Where would "good parenting and training" come from? We're into three generations of welfare dependence, 40 years of no-fault divorce laws, acceptance of "recreational" drug taking, acceptance (or at least no large scale pushback) of the degeneracy of our society, strong encouragement of women into the workforce...I could go on. Who is at home with better values and principles and a stiff spine to be a "better" parent?
My county sheriff attributes much of the increase in homelessness on the fact that our local prisons are releasing thousands, with additional planned in the near future.
This is a problem when people won't rent to ex-cons and won't allow them to live with a person renting the home either. We really aren't a society that sets people up to succeed once they have broken the law and paid their debt to society. The frustration sends them back to their old crowd, often ex-cons that they knew in prison, and back to drinking and or drugs to medicate their depression. Family is usually no help because they came from a mess of a home and that's why they ended up where they were to begin with. It's a horrible, ugly cycle. If we spent more time on promoting good parenting instead of what we're doing now, well I guess a lot of politicians would be out of a job.
So many valid observations here. I would also explore "zoning" as a culprit. Many people would be perfectly happy to live in a modular, park model or tiny house, but are prevented doing so by restrictive zoning laws. Follow the money by drilling down on zoning boards and the dynamic is obvious. Many zoning boards are populated with developers, contractors or others with similar self interests. That's a big problem.
Speaking frankly, as a homeowner in a nice neighborhood I do not want my neighbors to be able to hitch up a trailer in the backyard or park a "tiny" home next door to me. Additional housing on suburban land creates problems with sewage, water, trash and additional cars. There is a reason why rural folks can accommodate these types of arrangements.
If you're speaking of allowing areas to be zoned for trailer parks that accommodate trailers and tiny homes, I'm with you. Over the years I've known people (including my parents in their retirement) who lived in trailer parks and if they're managed well they're quite nice and sometimes difficult to get into because they're small communities and people tend to keep their units for a long time.
Activists where I live act like that Kozol quote is the ONLY answer. Some of these activists are now threatening the health and welfare of city and park employees who clear homeless camps. They have been saying that the CARES Act proved that you could provide single room housing for every homeless on the street. Looking at the camps I have helped clear, the drug addiction and mental illness runs so deep, giving them a room of their own for "free" and then acting like that solves the problem is it's own form of madness.
Thanks for providing some nuance to another issue that gets flattened out.
I disagree with the base of this article. Home building has stalled and regulations are part of the problem. At the other end, investors have soured on stocks, gold and crypto currency. The end result is investment in properties which can be rented out.
It’s strange in American culture to kick your kid out at 18 to go be an adult. Most other cultures hold enormous value in family and generations are known to stay together to help as new babies are born and as old folks need care. Here, we think the nuclear family unit is best, we pay others to watch our kids and let our elderly die alone in nursing homes.
And different people are bound to reach independence at different times.
So true and sadly it seems to be mostly overlooked by parents.
Yeah, that too.
When you own (and control) your own land and house, you can construct an addition, new house or at least buy a trailer. This still happens in rural US, but not in cities where many rent or are limited by zoning laws and building codes.
100% agree which is why we've made it clear to our 17 year old son that our home is "home" for him for as long as he wishes it to be.
Same! My mom lives with me. By choice, not necessity! And all my sons are welcome to stay. And their partners are welcome in my house. And when they come of age, I hope they want me to stick around.
What an interesting way of thinking about these problems. I never before realized that I was flat the housing market, though I recognize now from my feelings about it (indifferent) that I am.
And what a great insight about the homeless and the fracturing of families. When I was 18 I was expected to get out on my own as soon as I graduated from high school. I was out within days.
But it wasn't that my parents didn't care about me. It's that they were raising seven children, it was physically and financially exhausting, and I was conscious that they needed me to help by getting out on my own. They needed to be freed from feeding me and they needed my bedroom space for the younger kids.
I loved them, so I wanted to help them out by leaving.
So I went to college for a year, and met and married my wife there my freshman year. She was pregnant within a couple months of our wedding and I had to drop out of school to support my new family. Our second child was born just before I turned 20. But I wanted a family. We had no thoughts of abortion. I wanted to replace the loving, tight-knit family I had left.
So it seems key to me that the problem is not so much about economics as love. My family loved me and I loved them, so when it was time to leave I wanted a family. If you want a family, you work out a way to care for it.
If you're cast out, unloved, you're probably horrified at the idea of a family. There's no incentive to get a job handling baggage for Greyhound (my first job as a married man), and then work your way up to better things, to pay for an apartment and support a family when you don't want a family and you've learned in some deep way not even to want yourself.
My father was a janitor when he married my mother. She never held a job. She cared for their home and children. I don't think it's possible for ghetto families now to be poorer than we were. I think American values and attitudes changed and I think they were changed by malicious people.
My wife says she remembers the day those values changed. She thinks it was in 1972, the day the book Open Marriage came out. Her father read that book and promptly abandoned her family for a file clerk at his office. She can still feel the anger and horror she felt the day he left. Her littlest sister, who was 5 at the time, never recovered. To this day she is constantly on the edge of homelessness.
The late '60s were filled with books like that.
I love this.
I like what you're doing with your essays on the culture wars.
"This Is The Greatest Bubble Of All Time In All Things “By Two Orders Of Magnitude" - Michael Burry
Idiot bubble is an interesting way to put it. The root of the problem seems to be the all-too-human impulse of "If it gets me more resources and power, then it must be good!".
Thank you for this information. The problem has been getting worse and your explanation adds to my understanding that it was based on addiction and mental illness.
Yes, and addiction and mental illness are often downstream from our other many problems.
You don't have to blame immigrants to accept that unchecked immigration hurts a native population and virtually always hurts those at the bottom of the economic ladder.
There is some equilibrium. But also that equilibrium shifts due to bad policy, and then it further shifts for an economic rug pull.
I haven't seen anything resembling equilibrium in my 40 years. I've only ever seen it exist as a hammer against American labor, voting blocs, and culture.
A great summary of a complex problem.
"The cause of homelessness is a lack of housing?" Roooiiiigggghhhhhhh tttttttt tttt t.
Most people cannot afford to buy a house outright. They borrow against future income, which is essentially long market to varying degrees depending on type of skillset they accumulate, and buy a house.
So owning a home is in effect the portfolio: V = long RE+ short Mkt.
Given that RE beta is around 0.6-0.8, the portfolio is actually short the Mkt (for a large range of Mkt from not too bad to very good). However, if the Mkt does very bad, the loan is defaulted and the house is lost i.e. V = 0.
I could say more on the relationship between short Mkt part and the skillset. That's probably a substack post in itself.
A lot of home loans are about leverage and capital deployment, but I agree, there are interesting aspects to the asset conversion process for the tweeners.
Essex County Massachusetts housing market is pretty wild. Assuming BlackRock or someone like that is behind it. At least the old timers can cash out and move north to NH or Maine with a good chunk of change to help them in retirement. That's pretty much what's going on around here. I'm interested what's up with these "replacements" moving in... (my town is in sell mode BUT my neighborhood is in SELL NOW MODE!!)
I believe most of the homelessness we have in big cities in California is a symptom of a drug problem and has little to do with anything else.
Think deeper. Why do people do drugs? Is it wholly chemical, or is it because their early life experiences did not allow them to learn to appreciate non-chemically-enhanced reality?
Right. Good parenting and training curtails the base instincts of the personality types most at risk.
Where would "good parenting and training" come from? We're into three generations of welfare dependence, 40 years of no-fault divorce laws, acceptance of "recreational" drug taking, acceptance (or at least no large scale pushback) of the degeneracy of our society, strong encouragement of women into the workforce...I could go on. Who is at home with better values and principles and a stiff spine to be a "better" parent?
I agree, but I don't think those things are part of this economics discussion either
Also opioids solve all of your problems so they are a much wider net for catching people...
My county sheriff attributes much of the increase in homelessness on the fact that our local prisons are releasing thousands, with additional planned in the near future.
Not many counties could have "thousands" of prisoners at all. The average (whether county, state, or federal) should be roughly 500.
Which county do you live in?
California released 76k prisoners in April 2021:
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/76-000-california-inmates-be-eligible-earlier-release-n1266044
Ventura County, calif
Maybe I overstated the “thousands”. But he maintained it’s a substantial percentage.
You’re not wrong. CA released 76K prisoners in April 2021; you can look it up.
This is a problem when people won't rent to ex-cons and won't allow them to live with a person renting the home either. We really aren't a society that sets people up to succeed once they have broken the law and paid their debt to society. The frustration sends them back to their old crowd, often ex-cons that they knew in prison, and back to drinking and or drugs to medicate their depression. Family is usually no help because they came from a mess of a home and that's why they ended up where they were to begin with. It's a horrible, ugly cycle. If we spent more time on promoting good parenting instead of what we're doing now, well I guess a lot of politicians would be out of a job.
So many valid observations here. I would also explore "zoning" as a culprit. Many people would be perfectly happy to live in a modular, park model or tiny house, but are prevented doing so by restrictive zoning laws. Follow the money by drilling down on zoning boards and the dynamic is obvious. Many zoning boards are populated with developers, contractors or others with similar self interests. That's a big problem.
Speaking frankly, as a homeowner in a nice neighborhood I do not want my neighbors to be able to hitch up a trailer in the backyard or park a "tiny" home next door to me. Additional housing on suburban land creates problems with sewage, water, trash and additional cars. There is a reason why rural folks can accommodate these types of arrangements.
If you're speaking of allowing areas to be zoned for trailer parks that accommodate trailers and tiny homes, I'm with you. Over the years I've known people (including my parents in their retirement) who lived in trailer parks and if they're managed well they're quite nice and sometimes difficult to get into because they're small communities and people tend to keep their units for a long time.
Activists where I live act like that Kozol quote is the ONLY answer. Some of these activists are now threatening the health and welfare of city and park employees who clear homeless camps. They have been saying that the CARES Act proved that you could provide single room housing for every homeless on the street. Looking at the camps I have helped clear, the drug addiction and mental illness runs so deep, giving them a room of their own for "free" and then acting like that solves the problem is it's own form of madness.
Thanks for providing some nuance to another issue that gets flattened out.
https://kstp.com/kstp-news/top-news/frey-denounces-violence-against-minneapolis-city-workers-as-threatening-flyer-surfaces/
I disagree with the base of this article. Home building has stalled and regulations are part of the problem. At the other end, investors have soured on stocks, gold and crypto currency. The end result is investment in properties which can be rented out.
Yeah, homelessness probably wasn't a thing prior to the pandemic era. My bad.
Both can be true at the same time, and undoubtedly are, alongside of those yet uncovered.