57 Comments
Jan 3, 2022Liked by Mathew Crawford

Go here and simply look at the all-cause mortality charts state by state:

https://www.usmortality.com/

It's crystal clear and irrefutable that something went terribly wrong starting in Dec. 2020/Jan 2021.

I can't for the life of me figure out what major "health" intervention began around that time.

Can anyone here?

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January 6th insurrection...obviously....

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😂👍🏻

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Feb 18, 2022·edited Feb 18, 2022

Confounders include vaccination in winter (a really dumb idea), covid, and vaccine-related conditions. These are inter-related. There is, for elderly men, covid-related myocarditis risk (0.00037) and vaccine-enhanced-covid-related myocarditis risk (0.00058), for example.

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I live in Puerto Rico where citizens were praised for complying with vaccine mandates and are known for the highest vaccination rate in the United States. Using the CDC excess mortality data available here: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm Average Weekly Excess Mortality by year in Puerto Rico CDC data (summarized by me).

'17: 8% | '18: 3.5% | '19: 2.5% | '20: 7.6% | '21: 12% - 2017 was the year of hurricane Maria where an estimated 3000 people died in the months following the hurricane as a result of lost communications and blocked roads. 2020 was as bad as 2017, 2021 shows a 40% increase and was worse than the worst excess death rate on record - nothing in the news about this.

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2021 was the year of Delta. I'm not saying vaccines didn't raise all cause mortality, but there doesn't seem to be any evidence that was the main cause of this rise.

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The year of Delta? Seriously 😒

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I thought Aquarius is to blame, always.

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These are not COVID-19 deaths - COVID-19 death is not correlated with excess mortality in Puerto Rico, PR COVID-19 death counts were among the lowest per capita in the US.

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Jan 3, 2022Liked by Mathew Crawford

A known murderer pours a drink for your uncle as well as his own brother. Your uncle dies, but the murderer's brother is healthy. The murderer points to his brother and says, "See? It wasn't the drink."

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Not sure what data you are looking at - https://ourworldindata.org/excess-mortality-covid - shows 30% excess mortality (all causes) in Israel at the end of August. Let's see what happens over the next few months.

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"The overall mortality in the January-February vaccination period was higher in 2021 than in any other year within the preceding decade. In the age group of 20–29 years, mortality in this time period exceeded that of the previous year by 32%."

https://doctors4covidethics.medium.com/doctors-for-covid-ethics-has-moved-bf51c5522aa2?p=47891f17d452

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wrong

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Deaths in working age were up 17% and deaths in 85+ y.o. were down 14% over 2020. (75-84 y.o. were down slightly and 65-74 were up 7.5%) Covid deaths were up 12%.

Geriatric-associated deaths (cardiac, cancer stroke) were level over 2020, except for chronic lower respiratory disease deaths, which were down 12%. So, for geriatric-associated deaths to remain level, the decrease in contribution from 85+ y.o. had to be made up mostly by working age deaths.

It looks like vaccines increase mortality from covid and contribute to cardiac and cancer deaths that are related to damage from covid (e.g., myocarditis).

My preliminary estimate of the increase in working age deaths in 2021 over 2020 is 137,500.

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Jan 3, 2022·edited Jan 3, 2022Liked by Mathew Crawford

Mathew, in case you didn't know, VAERS also shows that the mortality rate per vaxxed persons for Indiana is twice as high (or greater) as pretty much any of the other states: https://vaersanalysis.info/2021/11/05/deaths-and-adverse-events-per-state-per-million-vaccinated-persons-for-covid-19-vaccines/

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Jan 3, 2022·edited Jan 3, 2022Liked by Mathew Crawford

According to this Daily Expose article, vaccination death rate has been over 10x higher in Kentucky than in California:

https://dailyexpose.uk/2021/11/03/majority-deadliest-batches-of-covid-19-vaccine-were-sent-to-red-republican-states/

It's hard to say if this means (1) hotter batches sent to red states, or (2) red states less compromised by ideology, so better reporting.

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author

Right. Several biases could add up to a severe bias, including the fact that cheaper cost of living states swallow up the larger populations of retirees, and report suppression of 70% versus 10% creates a 3x bias, and so on.

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Amen to the FOIA request! What about contacting Aaron Siri? I know he has his hands full, but this is right up his alley. Maybe Steve can hook you up.

Do you know if there’s any industry database that compiles data from various life insurance companies across the country? Surely, something like that exists, even if it’s only accessible to industry insiders.

BTW, I don’t know if you would find this 2009 paper of interest, but it might provide some interesting comparison points:

“Mortality Risk Prediction by an Insurance Company and Long-Term Follow-Up of 62,000 Men”

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/labs/pmc/articles/PMC2673682/

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Aaron Siri was my first thought, but given how busy all of us already involved are, one thing I'm trying to do is spread the burden out. We (the pool of people involved in various aspects of all this) are all so tangled in tasks that we don't even work together as well as we did six months ago because there is rarely somebody with time slack. I just took three days off (29th-31st) to recover from migraines, and I'm sure there are a lot of gassed doctors and researchers at this stage. It's 4:18 AM and I haven't gone to bed. Recruiting = win.

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Totally get it and agree it’s a great idea to get someone new to help with this task. I’ve been doing way too many 24-hour stretches lately myself!

Sorry about your migraines—I’ve gotten those all my life but have them more under control now thanks to supplements. Hope you’re feeling better now and take care.

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I used to have 4-5 a week, but improved that to 4-5 a year with better hydration and avoiding lactose-heavy anything. But I'm highly dyslexic, and doing 4-5 hours of intense reading every day for months on end has made them a little more common again. I go a few weeks without them, but then they build up and I crash for a few days. A few months ago I slept 11 hours a day for a week and thought I might have tick-borne illness due to pulling 5 off me on a hike. Fortunately, I was much better after sleeping in for a week.

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Glad you got them under control, but yikes, you definitely don’t want lyme disease! You probably had HPA axis dysfunction/adrenal exhaustion. I’ve gone through numerous bouts of that over the years, and getting consistent 8+ hours of sleep a night is critical to resolving the symptoms.

Since you don’t want to tax your eyes more, I recommend the audiobook of “Why We Sleep” (https://www.audible.com/pd/Why-We-Sleep-Audiobook/B0752ZQR33) to learn how profoundly sleep affects every aspect of our health and ways you can improve it.

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Caffeine overuse then underuse may trigger migraines.

Also, vitamin D supplementation around 9,000 units per day may help.

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There is a growing number of people outside the US cheering all of you on. Since our systems of governement works quite different with regards to FOIA and equivalent stuff, in many nations we lack your options of suing governement or businesses for data, so we're pretty much stuck at civil disobedience, protest marches and the like.

Amidst all the doom and gloom, there is in society a feeling I personally haven't felt since the late 80s, protesting against the Soviet occupation of the Baltic states: people of all colours and creeds united in the common cause to oppose tyranny, come H*ll or high water.

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Jan 3, 2022Liked by Mathew Crawford

According to the CDC, USA death rate for under-45s has been elevated since March, 2020, but seemingly not due to COVID, because the seasonal pattern is absent. Explain that, Mr. Hospital Executive. https://norstadt.substack.com/p/are-the-usa-sacrificing-the-young

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Jan 3, 2022Liked by Mathew Crawford

If this is really happening, it's going to be the life insurance companies that start squealing for bail-outs first.

Three statistical thoughts:

It's essential to look for similar patterns elsewhere, otherwise a 6-sigma event in one place in one time is like arguing global warming or not global warming based on one of 16 variables measured hourly in 450,000 places. At any one time, at least one measure somewhere is bound to be exceptional. I think we are seeing similar patterns to Indiana elsewhere, if not so dramatic.

Is human mortality data actually sufficiently close to normal distribution to think in sigmas? There is definitely a strong seasonal element and the underlying distribution is always dependent on time and place. The 2004 tsunami will have been a global multiple-sigma event for that day (it roughly doubled the average number of daily deaths) but had likely no impact globally over the year (though may have done on more restricted geographies) - which raises the question of how you calculate the return period for n-sigma events. Occasional mass killing events probably mean that n-sigma events are more frequent than we would expect.

How do we decide the baseline? How many should be dying without factors unknown influencing the number of poeple actually dying (we can postulate I (infection) N (NPIs) and W (waxing) are happening, possibly others). A N-year average is only a starting point, we need to factor in the change in population risks (e.g. due to past coronavirus deaths) and how to account for seasonal effects rarely lining up exactly from year to year - this even complicates year-to-year comparisons.

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Standard deviations mean less in situations like this. As are all metrics, they are imperfect. But there are some that make your jaw drop, and that's enough. Attention paid.

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How many geographies we can get over a reasonable, and comparable (especially considering the effect of different timing of the epidemic/wax rollout/booster rollout) timespan?

high-wax low-NPI (Sweden, FL)

high-wax high-NPI (Germany, NY)

low-wax high-NPI (Is there anywhere? Perhaps Australia earlier this year? Peru?)

low-wax low-NPI (probably only countries with such bad data they don't even know how many people live there)

Mortality is definitely up in Germany and Scotland (also a high-wax high-NPI location), and allegedly flat in Sweden.

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Jan 3, 2022·edited Jan 3, 2022

Can confirm that over-all mortality in Sweden seems to have returned to pre-Covid levels, though the data isn't finalized yet (weeks 46-52 aren't in yet).

Looking at the official source for infected, hospitalised etc I can see that total number of cases (which may included people getting it more than once) stands at 1 314 784 confirmed. Of those 8 219 have needed ICU care. And 15 310 have died from Covid infection (80% of these with known comorbidities), confirmed by testing. This is the total as of now, from march 2020. For comparison, the population is about 11 000 000.

Right now, the curve for Covid-cases har risen sharply from november, the curve for ICU has seen a very modest increase, and the curve for Covid deaths is flat to declining.

So naturally, our pundits, propagandists and politicians are panicking and are pushing hard for lockdowns (but not schools or nursing homes), vaccine-ID (but not for illegal migrants or "refugees"), and loss of access to public healthcare (but not for terrorists, rapists and murderers). This is across the political spectrum, not confined to any one party.

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Not if life insurers have invested in life settlement companies or instruments to hedge their risk. Something that needs to be investigated.

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From Malone: It is starting to look to me like the largest experiment on human beings in recorded history has failed. And, if this rather dry report from a senior Indiana life insurance executive holds true, then Reiner Fuellmich’s “Crimes against Humanity” push for convening new Nuremberg trials starts to look a lot less quixotic and a lot more prophetic.

I had a hunch that the actuaries would know the truth or at least be closer to it. The idea that the unvaccinated should face a healthcare or life insurance rate surcharge never made sense to me and is becoming increasingly preposterous. It some large part of the 40% increase correlates with vaccine status, the gun is not just smoking, it’s barrel has melted. I expect that any future insurance company admissions will come from whistleblowers. Assuming life and disability insurers can’t successfully deny claims—imagine a scenario where the FDA denies that certain adverse events are vaccine related, but the insurers claim the opposite—this could constitute a short term transfer of wealth from insurance company reserves to vaccine manufacturers and their enablers. I imagine that insurance company lobbyists are already scheduling meetings and negotiating payoffs with our bought representatives in Congress.

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Great article, but a slight correction to the maths. You say "a three-sigma event should happen around once every 300 or so years and a six-sigma event should happen once every 300,000 or so years", but it's even worse than that. According to Wikipedia's article on the normal distribution, a 3-sigma event can be expected to happen once in 370 years, but a 6-sigma event once every 507 MILLION years. The probability of a 12-sigma event happening by chance is of the order of 1 in 10 to the power 33, or sextillions of times the age of the universe. So I think we can conclude it's not happening by chance.

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Feb 18, 2022·edited Feb 18, 2022

"God doesn't play dice" - Einstein

"I don't always play dice, but when I do, I use a 10^33 sided dice" - The most interesting man in the universe meme with Jesus's face laid overtop for humorous effect. Purely for humorous effect and no disrespect meant to fellow Christians. But God is basically the only force who could ever cause a 1 in 10^33 event to occur.

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Jan 3, 2022·edited Jan 3, 2022

Morticians, funeral parlours, crematoriums and so on should have corresponding data?

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Important correction. He is a LIFE INSURANCE CEO. Not a HEALTH INSURANCE CEO.

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First prize goes to the insurance company that can accurately determine what's causing the increase. They will be able to adjust their questionnaires and charge premiums that correspond to actual risk, leading to gains in market share over those that don't. Not to mention greater profitability in avoiding unanticipated claims..

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My bet is that the increase in what appears to be all-cause mortality is the cumulative effects of spike protein on the vascular system, in effect, the "vaccines" are acting as poisons. Get people to have spike proteins circulating on a chronic basis, and they die from all sorts of things not apparently from vaccine injury. And I'll bet very few autopsies are being performed. I'd wonder if the rate of cremations is up as well.

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The society of actuaries had a report on death benefit payouts for q1 (or q2?) 2020 for individual plans (hint - there wasn't a deviation from past years). David Martin mentioned this in one of his "butterfly of the week" videos this past summer (entitled "the case of the missing death benefits").

However, I figured that more people have group plans through employers. It was harder to find but (iirc) there was a report on payouts for group plans in the same time frame and those payouts were higher than in past years. It's fuzzy and I no longer have the link handy.

I haven't looked for more information (this is really outside my realm) but society of actuaries is where one might start making connections.

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The proper target for this data are the life insurance companies, not the health insurers (aka payers). The health insurers profits are capped at a percentage of premiums (revenues). "Health" insurance companies are positioned to benefit greatly from the additional human suffering that arise from either the virus or the injections. Costs will rise. Premiums will rise. Profits will rise. Life insurance companies, on the other hand, will face more short-term pressure. It is unlikely that they will be able to increase future premiums quickly enough to counter the now under-priced policies currently in service. Here's a list of the largest life insurance companies in the US: https://www.policygenius.com/life-insurance/biggest-life-insurance-companies/

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He was a life insurance ceo

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It looks from the all-cause mortality chart of Indiana that you posted, that excess deaths are related to covid waves, not high vaccination periods. Tell me why I'm wrong.

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author

1. I did not post an all-cause mortality chart of Indiana, Mr. statsman.

2. We already know that most of the vaccine-associate deaths in VAERS correspond with COVID waves from VAERS and other sources. I have written about it. What would the point of the observation be?

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Could you name the article in which you discussed the correspondance between vacine deaths and COVID waves?

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Also, in my county, covid deaths peaked before the vaccine rollout.

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You have cause/effect and confounders confused.

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Thank you once again for your lucid article.

I live in a city of about 35,000 in a rural part of Maryland between Atlantic Ocean and Chesapeake Bay. We have a full service Fire department and police department. A firefighter friend keeps me up to date on happenings of all kinds. Suicides are just tearing this city up. In recent weeks a young woman shot herself, among suicides involving guns. I think the isolation and loss of income from the government's blundering elephant walk over our civil liberties is driving people nuts.

Just thought I'd mention that.

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