What you say makes sense, and I know these "vaccines" are a colossal disaster full of deception .. but I don't know how to explain my Mom testing positive on three rapid tests (that I gave her), as well as PCR (PCR I know could be BS depending on cycle threshold), while in the hospital for something else - and not having any symptoms at all.
Her last "vaccine" was more than several months ago, she didn't take the "bivalent booster", but she had four "vaccines". Seems like not considering that, in her case, the "vaccine" protected her from getting sick would be as much of a blind spot as thinking a 28 year old dying while jogging the week after being boosted is a coincidence.
Could there be another explanation? Would vaccines many months ago cause positive tests including rapid antigen? IgG4 tolerance so she didn't get sick but the virus may be doing other damage? The nurses go back and forth between positive and negative patients on the same floor, they only move them if they have symptoms.
A few inconsistent squirts of X-Clear probably wouldn't be enough to make one asymptomatic while testing positive for over a week. (Although she takes Pravastatin, which is just one of the pieces of a covid protocol, but not everyone agrees w that, and she was on an IV antibiotic.)
When I had covid, I got moderately sick (and sicker after), despite immune mist, nicotine gum, ivm / hcq / zinc, D, C, etc, etc, etc, etc. Obviously I don't regret not being "vaccinated", and Mom seeming to do well in the lottery for serious adverse events may not continue long term.
I thought, at best, the "vaccine" could give some people a milder version of the disease, at an unacceptable risk / cost. Surprised that Mom had no symptoms at all, not even non-respiratory symptoms like joint pain / upset stomach.
*Is there a way to think about this that doesn't credit the "vaccines" with helping her? Cause I don't want to give those things any credit at all .. just don't know how to look at it any other way ... (& she doesn't take especially good care of herself, she just listens to doctors, takes calcium with small amount of D, resists other supplements, doesn't eat super crappy nor healthy food.)
??? Love to know your thoughts, but I know you have 4,602 other things to do right now ...
(And she would have been given Remdesivir if I hadn't got a patient advocate from Graith Care to convince her to say a hard No to that, And make sure it's in her chart. An infectious disease doc at Long Island Jewish Hospital ordered it the day after her positive test, still with no symptoms).
There was notihng for the industrail poison to ever be "effective" against.
Covid-19 is pure fiction except from within the proaganda framework.
You've still got a long way to go brother.
“Any dogma of a class, medical or religiious, that needs the fostering care of legislative enactment to force it upon the people, shows inherent weakness and condemns it at once among all just men. Vaccination, therefore, stands condemned.”
I appreciate the suggestion to take it in small sections, digest it, and then add more. I tend to read so much and don't reflect enough. I jumble up all the stuff I read and sometimes lack an ability to explain it to others in a cohesive and precise manner. Precision does matter. I wish those in charge of "public health" also realized this fact.
I think you can include more per article. I was ready to dig into something substantial, and then ended suddenly. Also have you seen Prof. Norman Fenton's to and fro's with the UK ONS on the "healthy vaccine effect"?
The next section was 95% complete, but I still needed a graph. But even the definitions and the breakdown of the bias into component biases is worth chewing on and understanding.
If a contagious disease causes very few disease and deaths in the general population, then it is impossible to develop an effective prevention for the general population.
This premise is perfect for a highly profitable fraud.
That was what I was thinking three years ago.
Therefore, lack of efficacy is a foregone conclusion.
In fact, it would be a failure to the con-man if there was any efficacy from his product. He would be the laughing stock in the next world convention of con-men.
But I understand people like to believe in illusions as a means to avoid the pain of betrayal, deception, coercion, etc. That happens to me too. It's bad!
It's good to realize that overcoming illusions is good for you and everyone else.
Why do I care about vaccines or mRNA gene altering injections? If there is some deadly virus in the world, by the time any vaccine or mRNA injection can be put on the market, that virus will have done severe damage to humanity. Whether it takes you down is a matter of your immunity, risk factors and chance. Not some useless vaccination.
Unless that virus was known to be coming ahead of time and that speaks of a "forced virus" being introduced...likely invented by man, no drugs could be created fast enough to prevent transmission or infection. Thus, there would already be stockpiles of drugs ready to go to combat the manufactured virus. So, that would be a faked pandemic. It's purpose? That is the debate.
These medical clowns cannot predict with any accuracy what virus might be coming down the pike. It is 100% a scare tactic to install the fear of infection and death. You can not prove any vaccine/mRNA product is safe and effective nor can you know how a virus might act in the real world outside of a lab.
There is no question for me about taking ANY vaccinations or mRNA injections for anything at any time. Despite all the presumed "nasties" these clowns have invented, I am still alive and functioning relatively well in my early 70's without having taken any injections (except maybe a tetanus shot) in the last 50 years.
For me, I have determined, the safe and effective thing to do is try to stay healthy overall, without using ANY big pharma drugs and that is my plan not subject to alterations no matter how deadly they tell us a virus is. There is no debate needed as to how the data plays out or what it suggests. I couldn't care less as I have no control over anyone's choices at this point.
Recall that about 20 years ago we had SARS CoV-1 floating around and if that was even real, it likely mutated into millions of variants none of which took out mankind despite there not being any "safe and effective" vaccines or mRNA injections.
Agree! I took the pneumonia and shingles vaccines as recommended by my doctor 7 years ago, after turning 65, along with annual flu shot. No more--never taking another worthless flu shot, especially if they sneak in mRNA. For over 2 years I’ve become aware of how incompetent our medical system is.
Greed and control, yes—as usual, follow the money. The flow of millions in grants to control universities, millions to tech to bribe for censorship control, millions in advertising—such a waste of taxpayers funds used against taxpayers 🤬🤬
In your definition of "Subsequent Health Variable" you used the phrase "health intervention". That made me laugh! The reason is in my opinion it is actually an intervention in health. I think doctors do far more harm than good, so I would prefer the phrase "medical intervention".
Also, I have to point out that young people rarely "seek" medical care. In the case of the covid shots, they were coerced by school or work. Health is already on their side because they are young.
It's amazing in some ways to watch the endless discussions and array of hypotheses on "all things mRNA injections" and on a broader scale "all things Covid."
Most of these discussions begin with presuppositions that avoid the core realities of what we are up against. To put it simply injecting toxic crap into your body will always damage your body. To put faith in any of these so-called products and to believe anything the Pharma Industry asserts is a form of madness.
Covid Is Not An Epidemiological Story; Covid Is A Crime Story.
"Covid-19" is not a disease, it's a business plan.
They've been using this same pandemic investment and control strategy for over 30 years now- it's lucrative. Even most of the "top tier" Covid dissenters fell for this crap and parroted the pandemic lie.
Covid-19, the disease, is nothing more than a disease of ATTRIBUTION.
Covid-19, the media event, was the Trojan Horse constructed to usher in a complete transformation of our society.
Covid-19, the operation, was never an epidemiological event, it is a business model meant to increase the portfolios of the super-wealthy.
There is no such thing as “Covid 19” except as a criminal conspiracy.
I think we are halfway there. As well as injecting the real bioweapon into a few billion of us, we are participating in a proof of concept trial of population control.
How much propaganda and fear does it take to get the proletariat to cough up our personal liberties and "rights"? How much financial destruction of small businesses and farms does it take to be able to buy us out for 3 cents on the dollar? How much personal independence will be traded for spurious promises of "safety" and "freedom"?
This has been ongoing for some decades now- my Psychiatry professor was involved with some of the CIA brainwashing and chemical trials in the late 1950's.
So, I accept your last two sentences but think we are still not seeing the whole picture, looking at trees rather than the forest.
In the decline of the Roman Empire there was a question- 'Quis Custodiet..." Eventually the Praetorians selected and controlled the emperor. The past decade of US politics shows disturbing parallels. Do you know how a Dominion machine tabulates votes? Actually, do you know anybody who does know?
"Qui bono?" is sometimes translated as "Follow the Money" which is a bit of a loose definition- in this case watch whose power increases is more accurate. Look at three constituencies initially, then add to taste:
1) The wealthy you have identified.
2) The politicals get their fame and perquisites.
3) The bureaucrats get power and control, without appreciating their function as "Useful Idiots" and leaders of the rest of their ilk.
Notice that the "Climate Crisis" is part of the same scam. I haven't worked through geo-engineering yet, but the same comments above apply.
My sister once asked me if I remembered what the Roman equestrian class did at the fall of Rome. Not recalling, I was informed that they retired to their latifundia. cf Bill gates and his purchase of about a county's worth of prime farmland in flyover country.
It is very difficult to know what influence Substack, its authors and commentators have in the current situation. We are drowned out by the persistent lies and distortions promulgated by the traditional media, AND the capture and perversion of the "Social" media by government. WE do battle against a system which has been in place for a long time, but we are learning to use our own distributed power. I have some concern with the vulnerability of Substack to cancellation, but I have faith that the participants will find mechanisms to continue spreading truth and hope.
I'm glad you brought this to light. It's an effect that, by default, will cast a shadow over all numbers they pump out. And we have uncovered several examples of statistical trickery and errors that compound HUB, but they require a deep dive analysis to uncover for each paper.
And it's also much easier for most people to accept than to say the CDC is corrupt.
The flu vaccine study was particularly interesting, in that it seemed to be more effective at preventing ailments other than the flu than the flu itself.
I haven't read this post but just noticed the 0% effectiveness image for Covid vaxes. That's how I'd put it. Zero percent effective. Numerous percentage points Harmful. It's about as effective as most other poisons are at doing Harm.
but there are also the people who took it because of mandates, to keep their job or not to be ostracized by their family or friends. I guess they are also healthier? or there are so few of them that it doesn't factor into this.
The HUB is not about the outcome. It's about who does or does not get vaccinated (healthy vaccinee bias), plus behaviors post-vaccination that result in health (dis)advantages for a cohort.
The fact that HUB likely plays a role, whatever health advantages you've seen for the unvaccinated children are likely even larger than the data indicates.
The parents of unvaccinated children are "users" of other methods of prevention of disease, such as seeing the State for what it really is, home made food, not watching TV, learning to be critical thinkers.
Their life-style is the most efficacious drug ever devised. Consider that.
You might think that reading this newsletter. Unfortunately, the larger pool of people who don't take their kids to get vaccinated are poor, single parents, working too many jobs, or just don't bother. There is a bimodal distribution. It's the middle of the IQ curve that falls into line.
Thanks for all of your great work! How are you computing the correlation coefficients in the graph? Are you doing any searching across lags? I'm currently trying time series plots of excess deaths, vax update, and cases in each state, although going to the county level is likely best to avoid Simpson's Paradox cases between urban and rural. There is a large spike in deaths in Aug-Sep 2021 (Delta wave) across a lot of Southern and Mountain West states that does not occur at all in the Northeast, so we have direct confounding since the Northeast states tend to have the highest vax rates. It's not clear to me at all this is all explained by HUB.
I'm proposing a new hypothesis: The Intelligent Non-User Bias; INUB ("eye"NUB). Those of us smart enough to follow Nancy Reagan's advice and Just Say No. Unfortunately, this bias has a miniscule effect on the whole population cohort, I suspect anyway, because mostly they don't believe a word we say.
Here is the link to the Pandata presentation (which will also be included near the end of the final article).
https://rumble.com/v27ijyo-the-efficacy-illusion-mathew-crawford.html
What you say makes sense, and I know these "vaccines" are a colossal disaster full of deception .. but I don't know how to explain my Mom testing positive on three rapid tests (that I gave her), as well as PCR (PCR I know could be BS depending on cycle threshold), while in the hospital for something else - and not having any symptoms at all.
Her last "vaccine" was more than several months ago, she didn't take the "bivalent booster", but she had four "vaccines". Seems like not considering that, in her case, the "vaccine" protected her from getting sick would be as much of a blind spot as thinking a 28 year old dying while jogging the week after being boosted is a coincidence.
Could there be another explanation? Would vaccines many months ago cause positive tests including rapid antigen? IgG4 tolerance so she didn't get sick but the virus may be doing other damage? The nurses go back and forth between positive and negative patients on the same floor, they only move them if they have symptoms.
A few inconsistent squirts of X-Clear probably wouldn't be enough to make one asymptomatic while testing positive for over a week. (Although she takes Pravastatin, which is just one of the pieces of a covid protocol, but not everyone agrees w that, and she was on an IV antibiotic.)
When I had covid, I got moderately sick (and sicker after), despite immune mist, nicotine gum, ivm / hcq / zinc, D, C, etc, etc, etc, etc. Obviously I don't regret not being "vaccinated", and Mom seeming to do well in the lottery for serious adverse events may not continue long term.
I thought, at best, the "vaccine" could give some people a milder version of the disease, at an unacceptable risk / cost. Surprised that Mom had no symptoms at all, not even non-respiratory symptoms like joint pain / upset stomach.
*Is there a way to think about this that doesn't credit the "vaccines" with helping her? Cause I don't want to give those things any credit at all .. just don't know how to look at it any other way ... (& she doesn't take especially good care of herself, she just listens to doctors, takes calcium with small amount of D, resists other supplements, doesn't eat super crappy nor healthy food.)
??? Love to know your thoughts, but I know you have 4,602 other things to do right now ...
(And she would have been given Remdesivir if I hadn't got a patient advocate from Graith Care to convince her to say a hard No to that, And make sure it's in her chart. An infectious disease doc at Long Island Jewish Hospital ordered it the day after her positive test, still with no symptoms).
There was notihng for the industrail poison to ever be "effective" against.
Covid-19 is pure fiction except from within the proaganda framework.
You've still got a long way to go brother.
“Any dogma of a class, medical or religiious, that needs the fostering care of legislative enactment to force it upon the people, shows inherent weakness and condemns it at once among all just men. Vaccination, therefore, stands condemned.”
- E.M. Ripley MD, Unionville Conn.
The 2 most deadly things on the planet are despair and poverty and one begets the other.
Why poverty, although real, is more of a mindset than a permanent circumstance.
Maybe you get tired of hearing it, but :Thank You,Mathew, for making this comprehensible.
I appreciate the suggestion to take it in small sections, digest it, and then add more. I tend to read so much and don't reflect enough. I jumble up all the stuff I read and sometimes lack an ability to explain it to others in a cohesive and precise manner. Precision does matter. I wish those in charge of "public health" also realized this fact.
I think you can include more per article. I was ready to dig into something substantial, and then ended suddenly. Also have you seen Prof. Norman Fenton's to and fro's with the UK ONS on the "healthy vaccine effect"?
The next section was 95% complete, but I still needed a graph. But even the definitions and the breakdown of the bias into component biases is worth chewing on and understanding.
It gave me time to look into the linked wiki. No cup of tea goes to waste :)
Yes!
Agreed. I settled in with a cuppa tea and dang it, the article was too short!
If a contagious disease causes very few disease and deaths in the general population, then it is impossible to develop an effective prevention for the general population.
This premise is perfect for a highly profitable fraud.
That was what I was thinking three years ago.
Therefore, lack of efficacy is a foregone conclusion.
In fact, it would be a failure to the con-man if there was any efficacy from his product. He would be the laughing stock in the next world convention of con-men.
But I understand people like to believe in illusions as a means to avoid the pain of betrayal, deception, coercion, etc. That happens to me too. It's bad!
It's good to realize that overcoming illusions is good for you and everyone else.
Many many people are "Tank" in the first Matrix installment...
Why do I care about vaccines or mRNA gene altering injections? If there is some deadly virus in the world, by the time any vaccine or mRNA injection can be put on the market, that virus will have done severe damage to humanity. Whether it takes you down is a matter of your immunity, risk factors and chance. Not some useless vaccination.
Unless that virus was known to be coming ahead of time and that speaks of a "forced virus" being introduced...likely invented by man, no drugs could be created fast enough to prevent transmission or infection. Thus, there would already be stockpiles of drugs ready to go to combat the manufactured virus. So, that would be a faked pandemic. It's purpose? That is the debate.
These medical clowns cannot predict with any accuracy what virus might be coming down the pike. It is 100% a scare tactic to install the fear of infection and death. You can not prove any vaccine/mRNA product is safe and effective nor can you know how a virus might act in the real world outside of a lab.
There is no question for me about taking ANY vaccinations or mRNA injections for anything at any time. Despite all the presumed "nasties" these clowns have invented, I am still alive and functioning relatively well in my early 70's without having taken any injections (except maybe a tetanus shot) in the last 50 years.
For me, I have determined, the safe and effective thing to do is try to stay healthy overall, without using ANY big pharma drugs and that is my plan not subject to alterations no matter how deadly they tell us a virus is. There is no debate needed as to how the data plays out or what it suggests. I couldn't care less as I have no control over anyone's choices at this point.
Recall that about 20 years ago we had SARS CoV-1 floating around and if that was even real, it likely mutated into millions of variants none of which took out mankind despite there not being any "safe and effective" vaccines or mRNA injections.
I think SARS-CoV-1 was an infectious clone.
Isn't it funny how we renamed that virus with that version number at the end, as if it was software?
Well Bill Gates is deeply involved. Next we'll call it SARS-XP.
He does seem to think about this stuff like it were a McAfee antivirus
dying suddenly = blue screen of death
The four letter propaganda acronym at the beginning is, well, propaganda.
Couldn't have been; where are all the Greek variants?
Agree! I took the pneumonia and shingles vaccines as recommended by my doctor 7 years ago, after turning 65, along with annual flu shot. No more--never taking another worthless flu shot, especially if they sneak in mRNA. For over 2 years I’ve become aware of how incompetent our medical system is.
And if eyes are open, they never close. The greedy part of this whole thing really gets to me, and the deliberate evil
Greed and control, yes—as usual, follow the money. The flow of millions in grants to control universities, millions to tech to bribe for censorship control, millions in advertising—such a waste of taxpayers funds used against taxpayers 🤬🤬
In your definition of "Subsequent Health Variable" you used the phrase "health intervention". That made me laugh! The reason is in my opinion it is actually an intervention in health. I think doctors do far more harm than good, so I would prefer the phrase "medical intervention".
Also, I have to point out that young people rarely "seek" medical care. In the case of the covid shots, they were coerced by school or work. Health is already on their side because they are young.
It's amazing in some ways to watch the endless discussions and array of hypotheses on "all things mRNA injections" and on a broader scale "all things Covid."
Most of these discussions begin with presuppositions that avoid the core realities of what we are up against. To put it simply injecting toxic crap into your body will always damage your body. To put faith in any of these so-called products and to believe anything the Pharma Industry asserts is a form of madness.
Covid Is Not An Epidemiological Story; Covid Is A Crime Story.
"Covid-19" is not a disease, it's a business plan.
They've been using this same pandemic investment and control strategy for over 30 years now- it's lucrative. Even most of the "top tier" Covid dissenters fell for this crap and parroted the pandemic lie.
Covid-19, the disease, is nothing more than a disease of ATTRIBUTION.
Covid-19, the media event, was the Trojan Horse constructed to usher in a complete transformation of our society.
Covid-19, the operation, was never an epidemiological event, it is a business model meant to increase the portfolios of the super-wealthy.
There is no such thing as “Covid 19” except as a criminal conspiracy.
I think we are halfway there. As well as injecting the real bioweapon into a few billion of us, we are participating in a proof of concept trial of population control.
How much propaganda and fear does it take to get the proletariat to cough up our personal liberties and "rights"? How much financial destruction of small businesses and farms does it take to be able to buy us out for 3 cents on the dollar? How much personal independence will be traded for spurious promises of "safety" and "freedom"?
This has been ongoing for some decades now- my Psychiatry professor was involved with some of the CIA brainwashing and chemical trials in the late 1950's.
So, I accept your last two sentences but think we are still not seeing the whole picture, looking at trees rather than the forest.
In the decline of the Roman Empire there was a question- 'Quis Custodiet..." Eventually the Praetorians selected and controlled the emperor. The past decade of US politics shows disturbing parallels. Do you know how a Dominion machine tabulates votes? Actually, do you know anybody who does know?
"Qui bono?" is sometimes translated as "Follow the Money" which is a bit of a loose definition- in this case watch whose power increases is more accurate. Look at three constituencies initially, then add to taste:
1) The wealthy you have identified.
2) The politicals get their fame and perquisites.
3) The bureaucrats get power and control, without appreciating their function as "Useful Idiots" and leaders of the rest of their ilk.
Notice that the "Climate Crisis" is part of the same scam. I haven't worked through geo-engineering yet, but the same comments above apply.
My sister once asked me if I remembered what the Roman equestrian class did at the fall of Rome. Not recalling, I was informed that they retired to their latifundia. cf Bill gates and his purchase of about a county's worth of prime farmland in flyover country.
It is very difficult to know what influence Substack, its authors and commentators have in the current situation. We are drowned out by the persistent lies and distortions promulgated by the traditional media, AND the capture and perversion of the "Social" media by government. WE do battle against a system which has been in place for a long time, but we are learning to use our own distributed power. I have some concern with the vulnerability of Substack to cancellation, but I have faith that the participants will find mechanisms to continue spreading truth and hope.
I'm glad you brought this to light. It's an effect that, by default, will cast a shadow over all numbers they pump out. And we have uncovered several examples of statistical trickery and errors that compound HUB, but they require a deep dive analysis to uncover for each paper.
And it's also much easier for most people to accept than to say the CDC is corrupt.
The flu vaccine study was particularly interesting, in that it seemed to be more effective at preventing ailments other than the flu than the flu itself.
I haven't read this post but just noticed the 0% effectiveness image for Covid vaxes. That's how I'd put it. Zero percent effective. Numerous percentage points Harmful. It's about as effective as most other poisons are at doing Harm.
Looking forward to the rest of the series!
but there are also the people who took it because of mandates, to keep their job or not to be ostracized by their family or friends. I guess they are also healthier? or there are so few of them that it doesn't factor into this.
Wealth is health, as I'll show. Yes, the corporate mandates pushed healthier people into the vaccinated pool.
I’m trying to digest this in light of articles I’ve read arguing that unvaccinated children end up healthier than their vaccinated peers.
The HUB is not about the outcome. It's about who does or does not get vaccinated (healthy vaccinee bias), plus behaviors post-vaccination that result in health (dis)advantages for a cohort.
The fact that HUB likely plays a role, whatever health advantages you've seen for the unvaccinated children are likely even larger than the data indicates.
The parents of unvaccinated children are "users" of other methods of prevention of disease, such as seeing the State for what it really is, home made food, not watching TV, learning to be critical thinkers.
Their life-style is the most efficacious drug ever devised. Consider that.
You might think that reading this newsletter. Unfortunately, the larger pool of people who don't take their kids to get vaccinated are poor, single parents, working too many jobs, or just don't bother. There is a bimodal distribution. It's the middle of the IQ curve that falls into line.
Thanks for all of your great work! How are you computing the correlation coefficients in the graph? Are you doing any searching across lags? I'm currently trying time series plots of excess deaths, vax update, and cases in each state, although going to the county level is likely best to avoid Simpson's Paradox cases between urban and rural. There is a large spike in deaths in Aug-Sep 2021 (Delta wave) across a lot of Southern and Mountain West states that does not occur at all in the Northeast, so we have direct confounding since the Northeast states tend to have the highest vax rates. It's not clear to me at all this is all explained by HUB.
I'll get to that. My wife and I spent some time breaking up data by regions where appropriate (in addition to state and county level).
I'm proposing a new hypothesis: The Intelligent Non-User Bias; INUB ("eye"NUB). Those of us smart enough to follow Nancy Reagan's advice and Just Say No. Unfortunately, this bias has a miniscule effect on the whole population cohort, I suspect anyway, because mostly they don't believe a word we say.