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"Follow the trend lines, not the headlines." -Bill Clinton
He may be disgusting, and you might be tempted to wear a mask just to look upon him, but you can't say he doesn't understand trend lines. And headlines. And virulent diseases.
Today involved lots of meetings and emails, and several hours spent setting up some content framework for a pandemic wiki project that I'll talk about more in the near future, but I did get a bit of work done on the global COVID-19 correlation analysis project.
Let's talk about the chart above. For each of the 219 nations with data pulled from the Github repository of Our World in Data, I tallied COVID-19 cases and deaths from day 1 of each nation's vaccination program through 10/20/2021. I made small corrections for deaths using spot case fatality rates and the last 18 days of new case reports to estimate COVID-19 death tolls. I compute the correlations between proportions of populations at least once vaccinated on each of the dates above with those 10/20/2021 case/death statistics.
Every correlation is positive, meaning that more vaccination is associated with more COVID-19 cases and more COVID-19 deaths, as reported. I plan to set up various time-lagged endpoints and create heat maps for a bigger picture view.
Correlations trended more strongly positive as vaccination campaigns matured toward their nearly present state.
"But, but, but Pfizer said…"
I don't know who needs to hear this, but sometimes you just have to consider that the mafia might be lying to you. Also, the tooth fairy isn't real and athletes are dropping like flies. There is something very wrong with these vaccines and our public health system.