Aug 25, 2022·edited Aug 25, 2022Pinned

It's frightening and disturbing to 'suspect" that the corruption in our society has reached the point where even Actuaries are being influenced to ignore certain data aspects and potential SImpson's paradoxes. This would, in turn, result in Insurance Companies losing money if actuarial data is not accurately translated into the calculation of premiums. And the Insurance Companies, quietly, carry enormous influence, possibly more so than the banks, so they would not be easily influenced. So for this interpretation to be correct - and it would certainly appear to be so - the corruption of our society must be complete and terminal!

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I can't much argue with you. Shortly after I returned from the January 2020 Joint Mathematics Conference in Denver, I read the American Mathematical Association's statement of Wokeness. Then I knew.

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Aug 26, 2022Liked by Mathew Crawford

of course the corruption is complete and terminal. But please don't make the mistake of thinking it's just now that this is happening. The MMR vaccines are just as corrupt. The Climate Change crap too. And the list goes on and on.

It's just now people's eyes are being opened. And that, in of itself, is a wonderful thing

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This glitch in the Matrix is eye opening, but there is a lot of work to be done to help people understand that the illusion that they're going to be shepherded to safety is just an illusion.

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yes indeed, Mathew. I've come to the realization though that many people actually don't want the responsibility to begin with. They'd just rather leave it to the white lab coats to tell them what to do.

Frustrates me to no end. But once I realized it, it was quite liberating. In fact, matthew 10:14 states this exactly.. "If anyone will not welcome you or listen to your words, leave that home or town and shake the dust off your feet."

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I had an mmr booster in early 2000’s, been on disability since ( 2003). Ironically for work in an autistic kindergarten classroom!

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It's not surprising at all since the Society of Actuaries decided the exams were too hard and dumb down the entire process. Back in the 1970's and 1980's when I was taking the exams you had to pass 9 or 10 (if memory serves) mathematics exams just to attain associate level. Those exams are gone. Now it's credit by course work or their silly online credit. It's totally different and much easier than it used to be. The result is a much lower level of competence.

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Paul - Your memory does not serve. In those days, 9 or 10 exams were required for Fellowship. Associateship required 5 exams passed.

The exams remain, though they have changed over time. The credentials may have been somewhat devalued in the process, but not nearly so dramatically as you suggest.

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ASA tests from the 1980's.

100 Calculus and Linear Algebra

110 Probability and Statistics

120 Applied Statistical Methods

140 or 141 Mathematics of Compound Interest

150 Actuarial Mathematics

151 Risk Theory

160 Survival Models

200 Introduction to Financial Security Programs

210 Introduction to Actuarial Practice

220 Introduction to Asset Management

230 . Principles of Asset/Liability Management

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I took the first two exams in the casualty series while in college in the mid-90s, and got 10s on both. Then a month after my second score came in it was announced that the exam list was being shortened by 1 exam, with the first two being wrapped up into one. It's trivial, but because that's around the time I jumped away from actuarial work and into finance, it still stings...like they sliced me in half or something. Bastards!

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Agreed. At the university we were shocked at what they did. We used to administer the first 2 or 3 exams for the SOA. We stopped. They had so diluted the process it was felt we needed to distance ourselves. In the 1970's and 1980's there were 9 or 10 associate exams starting with calculus, linear algebra and then probability an mathematical statistics. Then theory of interest (which always gives people fits) numerical analysis, and operations research. Next several more actuarial specific math tests such as rate making, demography, and so on. All this is gone. I too drifted away from actuary studies after a couple exams and pursued statistical theory and differential equations. The SOA was one of the first organizations to go woke. Never would have believed it possible as they were so rigid with requirements for so long. I often wonder who got to them? Why suddenly lower your standards? Actuaries perform a vital role in the insurance industry. Now this has spread to medical schools, law schools virtually everything has been dumbed down. It's mind numbing.

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Our loss was Finance's gain.

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Hello again, Paul. You can look it up in any of your old SoA Yearbooks, under "Requirements for Admission". The 1985 Yearbook, for example, says on p. 37: "Requirements for Admission to Associateship ... c) Associateship Examinations. The 1985 Associateship examinations consist of five parts, Parts 1-5, described in this section."

Your course listing above is actually from the newer, "dumbed-down" syllabus first introduced in 1988. They called it the the Flexible Education System (FES), but initially it just broke the existing exams up into smaller parts and made some of them elective rather than mandatory.

I have trained and supervised actuaries and actuarial students for a long time. Perhaps the current crop are not quite so well-trained, rigorously-tested, and good-looking as we were. But I can't agree that the ASA credential has been completely dumbed down.

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1979 exams for Associateship. I do not know where you get your information from but this came from the Society in 1979. I have the publication. These were the exams. Period! Enough of this nonsense!

Associateship Examinations


Part Allowed Subject

1 3 hours General Mathematics

2 3 hours Probability and Statistics

3 3 hours Numerical Analysis

3 3 hours Theory of Interest

4 3 hours Life Contingencies

4 3 hours Operations Research

5 3 hours Principles of Economics

6 4 hours Principles of Ratemaking

7 4 hours Insurance Accounting

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You are once again quoting the CAS syllabus, Paul. The SoA syllabus was exactly as I said - five exams for Associateship.

I told you exactly where I got the information, even giving you the page number in the source SoA Yearbook.

I don't know why you are unwilling to admit your simple mistake, and I no longer care. You are certainly old enough to know better.

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I am not wrong. I have the catalogs, study guides to prove it. here's the CAS associateship list from the 1980's:

1: Calculus (SOA 100)

2: Probability and Stats (SOA 110)

3a: Advanced Stats -- ANOVA, Regression, Time Series (SOA 120?)

3b: Operations Research (SOA ???)

3c: Numerical Analysis (SOA 130 or 135, can't remember)

4: Life Contingencies, Interest Theory, Credibilty, and Loss Distributions

5: Economics (Micro/Macro) and P&C Policy Forms

6: Ratemaking

7: Reserving and Accounting

8: Law and Regulation

9: Advanced Ratemaking

10: Reinsurance, Financial Operations, and Fellowship topics de jour

Here's what they are now:

New Exams:

Exam P–Probability

Exam FM–Financial Mathematics

Exam MFE–Models for Financial Economics

Exam MLC–Models for Life Contingencies

Exam C–Construction and Evaluation of Actuarial Models


VEE* Economics

VEE* Corporate Finance

VEE* Applied Statistics

Fundamentals of Actuarial Practice (FAP) e–Learning Course

Associateship Professionalism Course (APC)

The 1980's ASA list is similar but focused more on applied mathematics. As you can see the 10 exams has been replaced with only 4 exams and 4 "courses". The process has been completely and utterly dumbed down!

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Sep 1, 2022Liked by Mathew Crawford

This is the worst thing I see as a member of the Society of Actuaries.

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Thank you. I too am not versed in statistics and not more than year two of algebra. I appreciate all the graphs and explanations. I get the drift and keep up the good work so perhaps minds will be changed in the future.

For those who find the graphs to small, try clicking (double clicking ?) on the graph and it should emerge full screen. If you need more magnification use [CTRL +] to enlarge. Then drag the image you wish to examine to the area to be examined and enlarge again if needed. ESC to return to the article and the page the graphs were present on.

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thank you for taking the time to explain some basic statistics to non-statisticians. You are correct that there are a lot of people (like me) who need a crash course in order to understand this data better. I greatly appreciate your realizing how important it is to reach people not trained in data analysis, but who are quick to understand, once you show the basic concepts. Substack is a great platform for quite a few brilliant people who are putting this info out into the public square in accessible ways -- it's so important.

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"Note that the original report is already archived by the Wayback Machine."

Hat tip to the savers we can't have enough folks preserving historical data & everyone can do it!!


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Obsessive Compulsive archiver right here!

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Aug 25, 2022·edited Aug 25, 2022Liked by Mathew Crawford

In Germany, people are trying to squeeze the data out of the insurance companies. BKK ProVita (that you mentioned) is not the only successful case. Another one is Techniker Krankenkasse (TK):


And a recent one is AOK Sachsen-Anhalt (reporting in German):


They are all consistent with the estimate of 2-3 million consultations due to vaccine injuries (for around 150 million doses).

The figure of 2.5 million has also been admitted by the Kassenärztliche Bundesvereinigung (KBV):


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Thanks for the additional Germany info.

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Thanks for all the data, Mathew. I struggle to make sense of much of it and appreciate your summations.

I want to point out that in the graph which shows the categories of death by cause (unknown, covid, accidents, illness) there is other data that must be clarified within the "covid" category.

My son, age 44, died of "multi-organ failure secondary to septic shock from COVID-19 pneumonia". As his mother, I know he died of multi-organ failure secondary to the hospital treatment protocol or "iatrogenic" causes. He did NOT die of COVID.

Families who have suffered the loss of a loved one and told it was "COVID" are angry about these lies when we understand what was done during the hospitalization and how much the hospital received due to use of certain drugs and procedures.

I guess it will take an act of Congress to finally compel the "health care" institutions to report how many COVID deaths were iatrogenic.

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I’m so sorry about your son. There are so many who died needlessly but how many is something we’ll never know now that “absence of evidence is evidence of absence.”

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Sorry for your loss and grateful for you sharing what happened

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The insurance companies folded on the 9/11 fraud. They paid billions on the Twin Towers insurance policy they didn't need to. pay. The folks in control have lots more control than you think.

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Except-- wait until the disability claims kick in. Ed Dowd spoke of this with Naomi Wolf. THAT will be the " gift" that keeps on giving (sic) to the Insurance Industry. Wonder if I will see a discount for being unjabbed-- like no-smoking, and how the hell will this new surge of disabled/chronic illness types pass a medical for insurance?

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That’s an excellent point. It’s also strange that every time I try to ❤️ your post, it gets undone. I don’t know why that is happening.

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Aug 25, 2022·edited Aug 25, 2022Liked by Mathew Crawford

Denis Rancourt & co have conducted two large scale analyses on US all causes mortality by state, age & sex.

IIRC the strongest correlate for excess ACM is poverty.

Not age, specifically.

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And in several papers I've seen the the worst comorbidity is actually mental health.

I think we are looking at iatrogenocode by targeting patients without advocates.

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Completely plausible. Utterly ghastly. Yes, those with a vulnerability just got mown down.

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I don't need these qualifications to know the mRNA gene therapy injections are pure hokum, unsafe and inefficient. From the get go, both pfizer and moderna products reported an ARR or absolute risk reduction of around 1% or less after the faked trials which should be still ongoing but are not due to the fact that the control groups were destroyed.

In fact, the ARR or real world risk assessment for many big pharma products is less than 3%, including statins. They always use the RRR or relative risk reduction factor when presenting to the FDA or to use in their marketing ploys, like nauseating TV ads. The RRR was said to be around 95% for both mRNA injections. We see how that has worked. They lied about that and they lie about most every drug they invent.

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And FDA greedily laps up this deception, their fig leaf.

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Would looking for vaccine injuries cause the graph to invert?

If I understand your hypothesis correctly, I believe you’re saying access to wealth ie health care caused less mortality?

More access to healthcare would show more injuries reported.

Anecdotal, but I grew up in the poor south, and people would have to lose a limb before they went to the hospital. I live in New England now, and it seems like medicine is big business here.

There’s a lot more to the danger of these vaccines than mortality. We’re seeing a lot of heart attacks in young and healthy and lots of cancer suddenly. People speak about it in hushed tones.

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"If I understand your hypothesis correctly, I believe you’re saying access to wealth ie health care caused less mortality?"

Not everyone who gets wealthy is stupid enough to seek great health through the traditional health care system. Plenty of them eat higher quality food, go on more vacations, pay for a gym membership and personal trainer, and drink single malt scotch.

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Mmm single malts...

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Live in South now, originally from Western NY. Corporate healthcare is as pervasive (worked in corporate healthcare, sigh) in the South as NE.

Realize all those pharm commercials are priming the "potential patient" to focus on specific symptom problems and then always tell the individual to talk with your doctor. It's like the barkers at Circuses and Fairs.

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I don't really agree with the common trope that it's about "access to health care". Health care is really disease care. But if you just look at poor people vs the wealthy, you'll probably notice disparities in how much effort they put in to taking care of themselves (in the aggregate of course).

Obesity is strong correlated with income among women (as just one example)...

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I believe it's education rather than wealth per se. They are often proxies for each other. People who know how to take better care of themselves can advocate for themselves, are less likely to engage in risky behaviors because they have more to lose, and they likely have probably been raised similarly, giving them a better health foundation based on proper nutrition and stability on the whole. I consider wealth to be downstream of all of the above.

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"Wealth is a downstream of all the above" It used to be -- doesn't correlate like it used to. (picture of Bill Gates insert here)

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It should be called " access to healthy lifestyle" not health care. BTW remember that these are averages-- which means yes there will be obese wealthy people, but the stats say there are more obese non-wealthy people-- stress, diet lack of access to healthy lifestyle.

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I’m having a more difficult time than usual absorbing your conclusions from this article. I gather that close scrutiny of the SOA data (sometimes aided by other datasets) further confirms your theory that apparent vaccine efficacy can be entirely explained by wealth effects. My guess about your explanation of excess deaths in Q3 2021 is that it is a result of the sudden increase in vaccination rate due to the imposition of mandates, combined with the slight-of-hand the CDC has done in classifying deaths within the first 14 days of the first vaccine administration as a COVID-19 death of an “unvaccinated” person instead of a vaccination death.

But you also say “(t)here is no reason left to suggest any of the excess mortality data trend is driven by vaccination, but every reason to think that it's almost entirely driven by the health effects associated with wealth.” I must have guessed incorrectly regarding the Q3 2021 data. Are you suggesting that the economic effects of the pandemic and the measures attempted to mitigate the pandemic are playing the greatest role in the increase in death and disability claims?

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"Are you suggesting that the economic effects of the pandemic and the measures attempted to mitigate the pandemic are playing the greatest role in the increase in death and disability claims?"

No. I'm not sure where the misreading is, but my quick guess is that if we had a five minute conversation, it would be clear, but I have no idea how many hours it would take to talk this through by text.

The overall increase in mortality is likely driven (partially/substantially) by vaccination.

The *trend* that we saw in the SOA graph (talked about in the video) is, I feel certain, driven by a combination of wealth effects and the fact that the Northeast saw more of its high risk population die earlier in the pandemic---the rest of the nation played catchup, contributing to the misleading trend.

I hope that helps.

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A cynic could even suspect these shots were pushed on the very crowd that skews in their favor, just as they do for flu shots. Mandates and constant availability of injections on demand were in the major office environments, the wealth-effect crowd. Nobody ever suggested chasing the poor with needles when they collected unemployment or EBT benefits. Nobody forced or pressured illegals to get injected for entry. Birx admits they knew the shots didn't work, but they could play the statistics and make them look effective by choosing the right targets in trials and the right targets at large.

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Thank you for stating what I too was wondering 😊

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That confused me a bit too, but he must mean that the actuaries are incorrect in suggesting that there the reduction in excess mortality is due to the differences in vaccination rates by region, because he certainly does believe the vaccines are causing death.

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Yes this was a little confusing. He’s concluding that good health driven by wealth protects against the vaccine just as good health protects against Covid, not that the vaccines are safe. Hugo Drax would approve.

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Great job again Mathew, I can’t thank you enough (also on behalf of those undecided, confused people who don’t know what to believe but I feel are starting to have questions/suspicions) for your ongoing, incredibly important work! 🙏

You demonstrate perfectly how easy it has been for the ‘dark side’ to use statistics to obfuscate and dismiss any and all dissent. We need to continue to try and spread work like yours to as many who are open to reading it.

I’m sharing your Substack and podcasts with as many fellow Aussies as I can!!

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Aug 25, 2022Liked by Mathew Crawford

sleek video, smug faces. Ugh! No hearts!

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Dr. Red Pill Fact Checker: They make sh$t!

 Schizer (1minute video)


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 Micro-Tech Patents (50) – Charles Lieber – Caught!


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Thank-you for the trove of information

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Aug 25, 2022·edited Aug 25, 2022

The R codes are important to look at only if the data is reliable. Didn't the CDC put down cause of death as covid for someone who died prior to two weeks after receiving the 2nd experimental injection? If so, then the R code that is for "death by covid" has fraudulent data in it and the total number is not accurate. I mean just the fact that "death by covid" has a higher total in 2021 than in 2020 tells us all we need to know: They are LYING! They need another R code for "death by covid experimental injections". Once they set that up and populated the data accurately, then we can use the R code data effectively.

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Bad data in --- even worse analysis. Good luck to the Insurance Company -- maybe they will start keeping two sets of books. Wonder what their hand in glove funders-- Wall Street-- will suggest?

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Question: As many corporations are self-insured, would there be a way for investors to obtain data, in regards to increased healthcare cost post mandatory vaccination, especially if the business appears to have made a decision that negatively affects investor financial expectations?

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There should be and it should be filed with the SEC.

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