Discover more from Rounding the Earth Newsletter
Mistakes Were Not Made - by the Society of Actuaries?
The Vaccine Wars, Part 69
I was glad to have the opportunity to speak with Michael Nevradakis at CHD earlier this week. I'd felt as though my reanalysis from last year of the Society of Actuaries data and their dubious claim of vaccine effectiveness (VE) in their data was overlooked. It's hard to be responsible for what feels like a hundred stories and analyses while the information avalanche follows the influencers.
Understand that this is not simply about analyzing the data, but about what we know from what the SOA told us. They made a clear and inexcusable…mistake?
As I hopefully made clear in the interview, I strongly believe that, as Margaret Anna Alice put it, that mistakes were not made by the actuaries. Whatever you might believe about what the data tells us, a group of professional statisticians worth their salt should never look at the following graph and not think "Simpson's Paradox":