The Pandemic Wars: Anatomy of a Risk-Benefit Analysis
The Wars of Wars Part II
Like my pinned article, The Wars of Wars Part I, this post will serve as a kind of "living document" insofar as I plan to write a series of articles to plug into a scaffolding. A few of those articles already exist, but others must be written.
Let us be clear, we are living in an extremely confusing war where the current battlefront involves a vaccination campaign. But understanding reveals the nature of illusions. What is it that we need to understand that would settle a debate between two groups of good faith actors, one of which is under the spell of a propaganda machine while each believes that describes the other?
The Answer: A risk-benefit analysis (RBA) of the mass vaccination program.
This is my attempt to help you, the reader, understand what the RBA should look like. That is not to say that I know for certain that I have it all right. That's a tall order for anyone. But I believe that long before this task is complete, a great many people will be able to read through this and reach a more informed conclusion.
Before we get to the RBA itself, let's lay out the criteria for policy analysis of the experimental mass vaccination program for COVID-19.
The Criteria
There are many ways to formulate a set of criteria for whether or not experimental mass vaccination for COVID-19 using the currently available vaccines is good policy, but the following are similar to those traditionally used by health agencies around the world.
The measured benefits to individuals must outweigh the measured risks.
There is no superior policy option.
The policy entails no substantial risks (knowns, known unknowns, or unknown unknowns) that could overwhelm the degree to which the RBA outpaces simpler options.
There is an implicit zeroth criterion of informed consent.
I will discuss these criteria in future articles and link them back here.
Table of Contents
I. Is the COVID-19 Mass Vaccination Program the Best Policy
Is There a Positive Net Benefit to the Mass Vaccination Campaign?
Are There Superior Alternatives to the Vaccines?
Mass Vaccination Creates and Risks Worse Disease
Other Important Observations
II. The Risk-Benefit Analysis of the Mass Vaccination Program
The Risk Report on Vaccines
Stratification of Risks
Mortality Analysis
Non-Lethal Risks and Benefits
Our Risk-Benefit Analysis
III. Superior Alternatives to the Mass Vaccination Program
Comparisons of Achieved Immunity
Prophylaxis Stifles Disease Spread
Aggressive Early Treatment of COVID-19 Crushes
Steroids Limit COVID-19 Harm
Better Public Health Measures Limit Viral Spread
Other Vaccine Alternatives Help
IV. New and Substantial Risks Due to Mass Vaccination
Variant Roulette (Evolution and Immunity Escape)
Vaccine-Induced Disease
Other Known Unknowns and Unknown Unknowns
V. Other Important Observations
Trust, Policy, and Leadership
Questions and Answers
Anecdotes and Reality
Feedback?
What would you change or add to any of this?
Thank you in advance for constructive criticism.
Also, as an aside to all of this. I've recently embarked on a mission to thank the people who have done such great work in service to the truth during the past year and a half. With that in mind I signed up for you substack. Your writing has been informative, well-reasoned and somehow, oddly, comforting. Maybe it's just having confirmation bias that I'm not completely barking mad. I don't know.
But anyway, thank you. This has become one of my favorite places to get information on what is going on out there. Keep up the good work.
P.S. I almost applied to help you when you were hiring, but I don't know that I have the qualifications to really analyze all the papers. However, I read all of your articles anyway, so if you want someone helping proof-read or anything like that, I'd be happy to assist in any way I can on a volunteer basis.
What would I add? Not being rude, but some way to get people to actually read the damn thing. Every time I try to take a tactic of engagement with the vaccination zombies they demonstrate a complete immunity to the facts or any discussion. I have a sea of information locked in my brain but it's only of use to me and the people I'm responsible for. I have been unable to eke a concession out of anybody. I've even seemingly persuaded people they should delay getting the vaccine as long as possible since it's still in trial, only to find out they went out a few days later and got their shot.
There's a wall there that I don't know how to get around, even with my own family. I hope the concerns about ADE, sterilization and vaccine escape variants turn out to be unfounded, or rather a lucky miss, because I'm worried for what comes this winter, and for my family.