The Pandemic Wars: Anatomy of a Risk-Benefit Analysis

The Wars of Wars Part II

Like my pinned article, The Wars of Wars Part I, this post will serve as a kind of "living document" insofar as I plan to write a series of articles to plug into a scaffolding. A few of those articles already exist, but others must be written.

Let us be clear, we are living in an extremely confusing war where the current battlefront involves a vaccination campaign. But understanding reveals the nature of illusions. What is it that we need to understand that would settle a debate between two groups of good faith actors, one of which is under the spell of a propaganda machine while each believes that describes the other?

The Answer: A risk-benefit analysis (RBA) of the mass vaccination program.

This is my attempt to help you, the reader, understand what the RBA should look like. That is not to say that I know for certain that I have it all right. That's a tall order for anyone. But I believe that long before this task is complete, a great many people will be able to read through this and reach a more informed conclusion.

Before we get to the RBA itself, let's lay out the criteria for policy analysis of the experimental mass vaccination program for COVID-19.

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The Criteria

There are many ways to formulate a set of criteria for whether or not experimental mass vaccination for COVID-19 using the currently available vaccines is good policy, but the following are similar to those traditionally used by health agencies around the world.

1. The measured benefits to individuals must outweigh the measured risks.

2. There is no superior policy option.

3. The policy entails no substantial risks (knowns, known unknowns, or unknown unknowns) that could overwhelm the degree to which the RBA outpaces simpler options.

There is an implicit zeroth criterion of informed consent.

I will discuss these criteria in future articles and link them back here.

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Table of Contents

I. Is the COVID-19 Mass Vaccination Program the Best Policy

• Is There a Positive Net Benefit to the Mass Vaccination Campaign?

• Are There Superior Alternatives to the Vaccines?

• Mass Vaccination Creates and Risks Worse Disease

• Other Important Observations

II. The Risk-Benefit Analysis of the Mass Vaccination Program

• The Risk Report on Vaccines

• Stratification of Risks

• Mortality Analysis

• Non-Lethal Risks and Benefits

• Our Risk-Benefit Analysis

III. Superior Alternatives to the Mass Vaccination Program

• Comparisons of Achieved Immunity

• Prophylaxis Stifles Disease Spread

• Aggressive Early Treatment of COVID-19 Crushes

• Steroids Limit COVID-19 Harm

• Better Public Health Measures Limit Viral Spread

• Other Vaccine Alternatives Help

IV. New and Substantial Risks Due to Mass Vaccination

• Variant Roulette (Evolution and Immunity Escape)

• Vaccine-Induced Disease

• Other Known Unknowns and Unknown Unknowns

V. Other Important Observations

• Trust, Policy, and Leadership

• Questions and Answers

• Anecdotes and Reality

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Feedback?

What would you change or add to any of this?

Thank you in advance for constructive criticism.