Is China Collapsing?
The China Wars Part VI
Many friends of mine will tell you that I've been talking about the upcoming collapse of China for a number of years. Every time I've found myself in a room with venture capitalists and investors, I've tried to encourage an investment pivot from China to Southeast Asia or Mexico.
Most of my friends who put up with me were probably irritated by the conversation because it's one of those that pokes at the Matrix, testing people's ability to re-evaluate their trust in modern information systems (the news, social media, history books, etc.). Much of the China Wars article series has been dedicated to the suggestion that the "New Chinese Hegemonic Century" story was staged. The problem has always been that ambitious Western Mandarins are not even allowed to have the conversation. They know better than to call the deer a deer.
While the discussion of a BRICS-led reorganization may be interesting, let's face it: BRICS doesn't have the Navy to challenge control of shipping lanes. Yes, I know, they've built more submarines and all that, but they're still building little islands in the South China Sea just to extend their sovereign reach one meter at a time. That's not going to be enough to solve the BRICS geography problems.
I colored Japan and the Philippines red just to make the point about how strategically sound the naval position of the U.S. and its allies is. Yes, war would hit those nations, if it breaks out, but I still believe we're in a global civil World War E over control of economic evolution, not a Sino-American conflict. China has enough problems at home, and its thinnest demographic is 20-year-olds (see below). China is not exactly in great shape to enter World War 3, which is a very good thing.
I made the map above to show just how disconnected the BRICS capitals are from one another. Moscow is twice as far from Beijing as from London, and that's just as the crow flies!